5 Reasons Why Bookmakers Fail With Political Predictions



One of the most interesting developments in the sports betting world is the rise of political predictions and the futures bets offered by sportsbooks that cover major political events. While politics isn’t nearly as popular as sporting events, the fact that the sportsbooks have struggled largely with evaluating the likelihoods of potential outcomes could start to change that if bettors decide they could have a strong advantage finding value with these types of events. Here is a look at five reasons why bookmakers fail with political predictions.

Lack Of Significant Data

The sportsbooks employ groups of people that calculate statistical probabilities of outcomes based on past results in order to develop accurate odds for sporting events. However, when it comes to the world of politics there isn’t really any significant data they can use to create their odds. In fact, even the information that is available might be unreliable as different new agencies and media outlets put out polls that often contain contradictory information. The lack of significant data available for creating the betting odds for political events is among the biggest reasons why the bookmakers fail with political predictions.

Inaccurate Numbers

In addition to the polling, the number of predicted voters in each region could be off by a wide disparity in the way that it was with Donald Trump’s election as President in 2016. A large number of the polls showed that Hilary Clinton had a significant edge while the numbers produced by media outlets indicated she would easily win the electoral college. However, while Clinton won the popular vote it was Trump that won the electoral vote with inaccurate numbers a big reason why the forecasting of the presidential election was so far off.

Accounting For The Undecided

In addition to the lack of significant date and the inaccurate numbers, there is also the issue of the undecided voters that need to be accounted for in votes. While the decided voters can voice their opinions leading up to an election, the undecided voters account for an unknown that cannot always be accurately predicted.

Who Will Bet On The Event

It’s important to understand that not everybody that has a vote will actually bet on the event, which means it’s hard to forecast which option will be bet on the most even if there were accurate numbers. For example, if the majority of people were going to vote Clinton in the presidential election then the odds might be set with Clinton as the favorite. However, if the majority of bettors are going to vote for Trump and they find him as the underdog at a sportsbook then they might realize the value of betting on Trump and take advantage. The sportsbooks can account for the general population but they can’t forecast ahead of time who their members think will win until they start taking bets.

The Role Of Sex

While it might seem like a stretch, sex often plays a bigger role in betting odds for political events than you might think. When you consider the role that sex scandals have played in recent political events such as the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal and others it’s easy to understand why sex should be considered an important factor. The majority of the time it seems as though sex is used to negate some of the odds of a man winning a political event, especially if they are considered to be more likely to commit an act that could hurt their political stock. The sportsbooks consider a number of factors when they create their betting odds and you better believe that potential sex scandals are given consideration. The fact that they are so hard to predict is just one more reason why the bookmakers struggle with developing political predictions.