Sports Betting: How To Beat The Bookies With Totals



With such a large number of markets available to those that want to bet the soccer odds, it can sometimes be difficult to narrow down the best options available. However, a recent trend when it comes to sports betting totals has changed the complexion of betting the over and under in soccer games. Here is a look at how to beat the bookies when it comes to sports betting totals.

Find The League Averages

In comparison to the majority of sports, scoring is a lot less frequent in soccer than it is in other events. That makes short tournaments and knockout games highly unpredictable while league performance is usually a good indicator of overall team strengths and weaknesses. When it comes to betting totals in soccer, the key is to know the different types of leagues and how to play them. For example, the Premier League matches feature an average of 2.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, Italy’s Serie A features 3.21 goals per game while Spain’s La Liga offers 2.85 goals per game on average. Once you figure out the league averages, then you can begin to gain an edge when it comes to betting the soccer odds.

Calculate Probabilities

The random nature of goal scoring is the reason why statistics follow a Poisson Distribution predictive model for betting totals. For example, in a game where the home team is expected to score 1.2 goals and the away side is expected to score 0.8 goals then it makes sense to think that the total will remain under 2.5 since the teams are projected to score a combined 2.0 goals. However, it’s important to understand the probabilities of the potential scoring results and how many goals each team is expected to score. If the home team averages 2.0 goals per game at home while the road team averages 1.4 goals per game on the road then there is a good chance they will combine to go over the 2.5-point line since the total projected combined score is 3.4 goals.

Determine Which Games To Wager On

Once you understand the probabilities of each outcome you can take a closer look at which games are worth wagering on and which are worth ignoring based on the actual odds. For example, if you think that Team A and Team B will combine for more than 2.5 goals but the line on the Over is -225 then it might not be worth risking the money on the Over. At the same time, if the odds for the Over is +225 then it might make sense to jump all over that line unless there is another missing piece of information you need to be aware of that could prevent the total from going over. By doing your research ahead of the games, calculating the probabilities for the scores and figuring out where the best value is you can definitely gain an edge over the bookies when it comes to sports betting totals.

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