MLB Betting: Strategy For The First Five Innings



One of the great advantages of developing a baseball betting strategy that uses the first five innings is that you know for a fact that your fate rests in the hands of the two starting pitchers. This means that you are able to focus on the two starters without having to worry about other factors such as bench performance and bullpens. Here is a look at a baseball betting strategy for the first five innings.

Improve Your Edge

By limiting the number of innings that your wager covers you can greatly improve your overall edge. The second half introduces elements that dilute the probability of you accurately predicting the outcome of a game. Close games and blowouts have different dynamics late in the game. Weather can change. Injuries happen and substitutions could be made. Early in the game you can look at a known lineup against a known opponent and evaluate what you think will happen. The fact that you have known factors such as who is in the lineup and who is pitching helps eliminate the randomness of the game. The longer the game is the more difficult it is to predict. Therefore, by eliminating four innings and concentrating on the start you can really improve your ability to accurately predict the outcome.

Secondary Betting Markets

Another advantage that you can benefit from when betting on the first five innings is when you target a secondary betting market rather than the actual game line. As with alternate run lines and team totals, you can focus on the first half line and study it. The best time to look at betting the first half is when a particularly strong pitcher starts with a poor bullpen or vice versa. In these situations, there might be an opportunity to capitalize on the fact that the sportsbooks aren’t giving enough consideration to the impact the dominant starting pitcher will have on the game.

Measuring Starters Versus Bullpen

One of the biggest factors that works in to the betting odds is the difference between starting pitchers and the bullpens. While a strong or weak bullpen can have a positive or negative impact on a team’s performance later in the game, they don’t matter at all in the first five innings. Meanwhile, the starting pitchers will have a tremendous impact on the first five innings, but their impact can wear down the longer the game goes on. It’s important to keep this in mind when looking for the best available odds.

Find The Best Prices

One of the keys to remember is to always search for the best price. These sports betting lines can change over time and depending on the sportsbook so you will want to shop around. One important aspect to remember is that the prices on the lines for the first five innings are usually most favorable when they are first released. Once the sharps jump all over them the lines will move. However, if you are paying close attention and you know what you are looking for you can jump on the early lines with the best available prices for the first five innings.