Super Bowl Betting Really Could Be Super This Year
January 24, 2012
With a competitive pointspread that's sure to interest both sophisticated and casual sports betting fans, Super Bowl betting really could be super this year. Sportsbooks opened the New England Patriots as 3-point favorites to beat the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Feb. 5. The total for the game is 55, another number that should draw action on both sides.
Interestingly, although most sportsbooks opened the game at a field goal, some bet takers quickly moved their line to New England -3 1/2. With 3 points being the most common margin to decide a game and 4 being a "key number," that is, one that occurs quite often (think 21-17 for example), you're not going to find sportsbooks adjusting their lines very much. The threat of being "middle" (losing both sides) or "sided" (losing one side and pushing on the other) is too real when you tread around a pointspread of 3. Instead, sportsbooks that feel pressure from bettors will move their money lines. For example, some books that have the game at -3 are offering +105 (bet $100 to win $105) on the underdog Giants +3 and asking you to lay -125 (bet $125 to win $100) on the favored Patriots at -3. Of course, sportsbooks that are at 3 1/2 are in an opposite spot where they have to encourage betting on the favorite.
Although the Patriots had the superior regular season, notching a 13-3 straight up mark and winning the AFC East Division by five games while the Giants struggled to survive the NFC East at 9-7, the teams have been much more closely matched where it really counts, with football betting followers. In fact, at 11-7-1 against the spread (ATS), New York has a slightly superior pointspread record to New England, which is 10-7-1 versus the number. The Pats are a marginally profitable 9-7-1 as a favorite this season but the Giants have excelled in the role of underdogs, going 7-2 when receiving points. Each team has played more "over" than "under" games with New England 12-6 in that category and New York 10-9 in totals.
There's some interesting betting history with these teams, recent and otherwise. In fact, the Giants pinned the only straight up home loss on the Patriots, beating New England 24-20 as a 9 1/2-point underdog in Foxboro, Nov. 6. Famously, these teams also met in the 2008 Super Bowl with the Giants, +12, ending the Patriots' 18-0 season with a stunning 17-14 upset.
This being the Super Bowl, which next to the World Cup is the biggest betting event on the planet, sportsbooks, with an eye toward gamblers of all stripes looking for betting alternatives to side, total and money line wagering, have added dozen, and in some cases hundreds, of proposition bets on the big game.
Among the most popular prop bets is which gladiator will be named the game's Most Valuable Player or, as it's often called, the "I'm Going to Disney World" proposition because the game MVP gets to utter that phrase in a commercial. With the Patriots favored, it's not surprising that New England quarterback Tom Brady, who captured the award in 2002 and 2004, is the 6/5 favorite. With quarterbacks having won 24 of the 45 years, including four of the last five, opposing signal-caller Eli Manning of the Giants is the 2/1 second choice.
If not Brady then perhaps one of his receivers will win the Super Bowl MVP award. Tight ends Rob Gronkowski, 12/1, and Aaron Hernandez, 16/1, sandwich Pats slot receiver Wes Welker, 14/1, in the odds. New York receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are offered at 16/1 each and if you favor a defensive player winning the award, something that last happened when Tampa Bay safety Dexter Jackson took home the hardware in 2003, the Giants end Jason Pierre-Paul, 50/1, may be your man.
Super Bowl betting is incredibly imaginative and diverse and many sportsbooks are posting prices on whether the game's first (+265), second (+170), third (+300) or fourth (+220) quarters will yield the most points, whether the game's first turnover is via fumble (+125), interception (+155) or there are no turnovers (+800), and whether there is (+150) or is not (-180) a special teams touchdown.
There are propositions regarding the first scoring play, even the first play (run or pass?) as well as whether there is overtime, a two-point conversion or a safety. Super Bowl betting devotees can wager on which coach makes the first challenge and whether or not it is successful, which is the first and last team to score, which teams draws the first and last penalty, which team has the longest scoring play and which team gets to 10 points first.
Given the international scope of the game, its wide television audience and the seemingly endless enthusiasm of sportsbooks to post props and gamblers to attack them, Super Bowl betting really should be super this year.
