We're now entering the third decade since the League voted to allow each team a week of rest during the regular season, a variable which savvy NFL betting fans always should consider before matching hard-earned cash to conviction.
The obvious assumption would be that teams coming off a bye week would benefit from the rest and, as long as their opponent also hadn't enjoyed a seven-day siesta, would be a solid wager the following weekend. After all, not only would injured players have more time to heal but the idle team's coaching staff would have an extra seven days to analyze film and prepare a game plan for an opponent that was concentrating on a different foe.
Ah, but assumptions aren't always reality.
Teams coming off the bye week are 349-311-1 straight up (SU) since 1990 and while that beats losing, (52.8%) it's less than an overwhelming endorsement that a week of rest makes a huge difference in the fortunes of NFL teams..
Much more revealing is that when the pointspread is factored into the bye week equation--and, let's face it, that's what really matters to NFL betting fans--teams with a week of rest are just 333-315-10 against the spread (ATS), a success rate of only 51.3%, which isn't enough to beat the 10/11 vigorish. So, contrary to conventional wisdom, betting on the team coming off a bye is not a winning proposition.
Obviously, oddsmakers have done a wonderful job assessing the impact of the bye week, establishing pointspreads that are so accurate that neither side enjoys a significant wagering advantage.
But that's the big picture. Let's see if the numbers stand up to closer scrutiny:
Home favorites are 114-126-5 while home underdogs are 61-52-1, making home teams 175-178-6 ATS overall, confirming that there's no wagering advantage for bettors there.
Road underdogs with rest are 92-98-6 ATS since 1990 so there's no real pattern there, either.
In fact, the only sub-division where a rested team has shown an advantage is as a road favorite. In that spot, the visiting chalk is 66-41-1, for a solid 61.6% winning percentage against the spread.
Another way to tackle the rest factor is to analyze individual NFL teams to see if their past results offer any clues to this season's schedule. By the way, the earliest a team has off is during Week 5; the latest, during Week 11. Here are some NFL betting scenarios for teams coming off their bye week:
Arizona: The Cardinals are 5-2 as home underdogs, which is what they'll be versus Pittsburgh, Oct. 23.
Atlanta: The Falcons are 5-3-1 as road underdogs, which they'll be when they face Indianapolis, Nov. 6.
Baltimore: The Ravens are 7-4 ATS at home, where they'll be when they host Houston, Oct. 16.
Chicago: The Bears are 7-3-1 ATS on the road, a position they'll occupy when they travel to Philadelphia, Nov. 7.
Cincinnati: The Bengals are 3-7 ATS on the road after a bye week. Cincinnati goes to Seattle, Oct. 30.
Denver: At 16-6 ATS, the Broncos are the best team in the League with rest. Denver goes to Miami, Oct. 23.
Green Bay: The Packers, who travel to San Diego, Nov. 6, are 9-5 ATS on the road after a week's rest.
Houston: The Texans, who visit Jacksonville Nov, 27, are 1-4 as road underdogs after a week's rest.
Miami: The Dolphins, who travel to New York to face the Jets Oct. 17, are 6-3-1 as road underdogs after a week's rest
New England: After rest, the Patriots are 9-2 ATS on the road, which is where they'll be when they meet Pittsburgh, Oct. 30.
New Orleans: The Saints are 2-5 as home favorites after rest. New Orleans hosts the NY Giants, Nov. 28.
New York Giants: The Giants are 7-14-1 ATS overall, after a week's rest. New York hosts Miami, Oct. 30.
Philadelphia: The Eagles, who welcome Dallas Oct. 30, are 15-7 ATS, including 8-3 as a home favorite, in game's following a bye week.
Seattle: The Seahawks are 4-10 ATS on the road after a week's rest, a position in which they'll find themselves at Cleveland, Oct. 23.
Tennessee: The Titans are 7-3 ATS at home, which is where they'll be when they play Houston, Oct. 23.
Clearly, the bye week has a different effect on different teams in different situations, factors that must be assessed in any NFL betting strategy.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
