Every spring about this time, Kentucky Derby betting fans complain about the inscrutable handicapping puzzle that is the Run for Roses, grousing that the first leg of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown, which gets its annual airing around the Churchill Downs oval in Louisville May 7 this year, is "wide open."
This year, it really is.
In fact, of the last nine Derby preps that have been run, including such staples as the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby, not one of them has been captured by the favorite. That leaves gamblers in the uncomfortable position of betting a more highly regarded colt off a defeat or taking a late developing colt off a surprise victory that may be an aberration. There's always a high degree of uncertainty in Kentucky Derby betting—going a mile and a quarter for the first time in a bulky field of 20 helps account for that—but this year's picture seems particularly murky.
Let's see if we can't separate the contenders from the pretenders for Kentucky Derby 137. (Estimated odds are in parentheses):
Dialed In (9/2): Won the Florida Derby by a head for trainer Nick Zito, who knows his way around the Churchill Downs oval, having won the Kentucky Derby with Strike the Gold in 1991 and Go for Gin in 1994. On the other hoof, do you really want to take a favorite (Kentucky Derby betting choices have won just four of the last 32) that will have to come from far back against a big field on a track where horses who attend the pace are much more likely to find the winner's circle?
UncleMo (7/1): The undefeated 2-year-old champion ran out of steam in the Wood, leaving previous supporters to ponder if it was just one bad race (as happened to Secretariat, no less) or an indication that the colt has reached his peak and/or distance will be a concern. Only the actual running of the Derby will answer that question, which doesn't help horse racing betting fans now.
Nehro (8/1): Back-to-back runner-up finishes, including a good second in the Arkansas Derby, have many believing that this colt is ready to peak on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree suggests he'll like the 10 furlong distance but he'll need a decent trip to prevail.
Archarcharch (10/1): So why is the colt that beat Nehro likely to be a longer price than that rival? It's all about perception and the notion among many that Archarcharch was luckyluckylucky to get the win at Hot Springs and that the order of finish will be different in Louisville.
Toby's Corner (10/1): Another case where the conqueror (Toby's Corner) is a higher price than the conquered (UncleMo) because bettors generally will forgive a highly regarded horse one bad race. But Toby's Corner closed stoutly in the Wood and you probably will get double digit odds that he validates that win in the Kentucky Derby.
Midnight Interlude (12/1): The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (even one that pays $29.80) must be respected but this colt did not race as a 2-year-old and the last horse who won the Run for the Roses without ever competing as a juvenile was Apollo in 1882. Does that matter?
Mucho Macho Man (15/1): Finished third in the Louisiana Derby after losing a shoe which has some handicappers giddy about the colt's perseverance. Guts are good; talent is better.
Pants On Fire (20/1): In what has become a familiar pattern, the upset winner of the Louisiana Derby is less well regarded than one of the horses he beat (Mucho Macho Man). The colt's jockey, Rosie Napravnik, will appeal to some on a gender basis.
Master of Hounds (22/1): European shippers have never done well at the Kentucky Derby but considering the wide-open nature of this year's race, you can't really blame the colt's connections for trying. Might be worth a saver bet.
Soldat (25/1): Hasn't raced since being beaten more than 10 lengths while finishing fifth in the Florida Derby, April 3. The price is tempting if you believe the time off has done him some good.
Brilliant Speed (30/1): Big price for a colt coming off a win in the Blue Grass Stakes but many believe he prefers synthetic surfaces to the dirt at Churchill Downs. His first two starts came on dirt and he was beaten by more than 40 lengths, combined.
The post position draw will have some impact on the field but what they've been saying for years finally is true in 2011: Kentucky Derby betting is wide open.
