It's Time to Re-evaluate Baseball Betting Strategy

With two months and about a quarter of the current MLB season already in the books, there's more than enough of a sample for baseball betting enthusiasts to take stock and re-evaluate their wagering strategy, analyzing whether expectations have matched reality.

Heading into the season, the Phillies, with the best starting pitching rotation in Major League Baseball, were the early future book favorites and a team that was likely to be the betting choice in the vast majority of its games. Clearly, if you had the courage to bet against Philadelphia, you did so with the hope that taking a big number, in the long run, would offset losing more games than you won.

Through May 18 and 42 games, that hasn't been the case. The Phillies have a winning ROI (Return On Investment) of +5.3 percent as a favorite, meaning, if you took the underdog every time Philadelphia was a favorite, your bankroll has been diminished by 5.3 percent. In fact, the Phillies have been even more successful when they've been a large favorite (-200 or more), winning six of seven of those opportunities for an ROI of +25.9 percent. If Philadelphia has shown any vulnerability this season, it's in night games where the team is just 16-14 SU (straight up) for an ROI of -8.7 percent.

If there has been a major surprise during this young season it certainly has been Cleveland, which has the best record in the American League and have been a best friend to baseball betting fans. The Indians, who began the year as a 200/1 future book outsider to win the World Series, have a plus ROI in all 16 statistical categories. Through 40 games, Cleveland boasted an overall ROI of +35.2 percent, including +57.8 percent at home, +48.1 percent as a favorite, and +47.6 percent in night games.

Although they reside in the same division as the Phillies, the Marlins also have done surprisingly well for baseball betting followers, notching an overall ROI of +12.4 percent during the team's first 41 games. Florida's ROI within the National League East is a division best +6.3 percent (Philadelphia's NL East ROI is +4.1 percent) and the Marlins have been terrific as an underdog, winning 10 of 16 games outright for an ROI of +42.2 percent in that situation.

But while Cleveland and Florida have been wagering successes, Minnesota and Houston have thus far failed to live up to expectations at the betting windows.

Beset by injuries, as of May 18, the Twins not only had the worst record in the Major Leagues but the worst overall ROI as well. Minnesota had an ROI of -24.7 percent in all its games, including a dismal -49.2 percent ROI at home and an ROI of -47.1 percent as a favorite.

Likewise, the Astros had the worst record in the National League and the worst ROI as well. Houston's overall ROI as of May 18 was -24.4 percent, including -35.0 percent as a favorite and

-10.7 percent within the six-team National League Central Division, where they'll play nearly half their games.

Major League Baseball's two highest profile teams, the Yankees and Red Sox, also have been anything but kind to baseball betting folks.

New York, which recently ended a six-game losing streak, through 41 games had an overall ROI of -5.4 percent. Beware; the Bronx Bombers were just 1-3 as a favorite of -200 or more (which happens whenever team ace CC Sabathia pitches against mediocre opposition) for an ROI of -63.3 percent. New York also was in the red versus left-handed starting pitching and in night games.

Despite a recent three-game sweep of New York in Yankee Stadium, Boston has been unable to overcome a season-opening six-game losing streak and has an overall ROI of -12.5 percent through its first 42 games. The Bosox have struggled as a favorite (-17.4 percent ROI) and versus left-handed starting pitching (-20.4 ROI).

It's still early in the season—many books haven't even adjusted their opening future book prices—and attitudes and expectations, like odds, can change. But until they do, teams that have played better than anticipated, such as the Indians and Marlins, will continue to reward baseball betting fans while teams that have floundered, such as the Twins and Astros, and to a lesser extent, the Yankees and Red Sox, will continue to diminish bankrolls.