For the gambler compelled to analyze as many as 20 precocious 3-year-olds running faster and farther than they've ever run before, successful Kentucky Derby betting probably comes down to an understanding of five fundamental factors: Preparation, stamina, running style, luck and value.
With the world's most famous horse race set for its annual spin around the Churchill Downs oval in Louisville for May 7 this year, let's take a closer look at that quintet of core elements:
Readiness: The old adage is that you don't have to have the best horse to win the Kentucky Derby; you just have to have the best horse on the first Saturday in May. Indeed, readiness, which can be described as a horse that is at his physical, mental and emotional peak at the time of the race, can sometimes overcome a shortage of speed or talent.
For most trainers, getting a horse prepared for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby involves a delicate two-step: Enough races as a 2-year-old to build a solid foundation but not too much work as a 3-year-old to leave the colt (or filly) anything but fresh for the Run for the Roses. For shrewd horse racing betting practitioners, that means looking for a horse that has raced with some success as a 2-year-old, hopefully in stakes company, hasn't been forced to take any time off due to poor weather conditions or some physical ailment, and seems to be showing a degree of improvement with each successive start.
Savvy bettors usually view a quintet of major prep races--the Florida Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes, and the Arkansas Derby--as the most likely launching pads for the next Kentucky Derby winner. Those races are spaced three to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, and each is run at a mile and an-eighth, or an eighth of a mile less than the classic mile and a quarter distance of the Derby.
Although a victory is not essential, most horse racing bettors will want to see their horse showing signs that the extra eighth of a mile of the Kentucky Derby is attainable. Of course, because races at nine furlongs are apt to have a faster pace than those races run at 10 furlongs, finishing stoutly at a mile and an eighth is no guarantee that a horse will do the same at a mile and a quarter.
While the five aforementioned prep races have produced the most Kentucky Derby winners, it's worth noting that a good horse can come from anywhere. Take Mine That Bird, the $103.20 upset winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby who came to Louisville after backing up in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico prior to winning the Run for the Roses. Experienced Kentucky Derby betting aficionados understand that there are no guarantees, just probabilities.
Stamina: Given the arduous distance of the Kentucky Derby, some handicappers place great emphasis on breeding and the likelihood, based on a horse's pedigree, that a colt will "get the distance." But many richly bred thoroughbreds trip on their pedigrees while others of lesser parentage exceed expectations. Like everything else, pedigree must be weighed against price to determine value.
Running style: While being out front is never the worst place to be in a race and horses that close vast amounts of ground in the stretch are exciting to watch. The way to win the Kentucky Derby is to be neither on the lead or too far off it.
Just as happened last year when Super Saver stalked the leaders, the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby more than likely will be a horse that maintains a positional advantage his jockey can time his winning move to catch the front-runners as they begin to tire and still have enough stamina to repel the late closers throughout a 1,234-foot Churchill Downs stretch that is one of the longest in North America.
With a full field of 20 runners expected to contest this year's Kentucky Derby, being close to the pace (while not engaged in it) relieves a horse of having to circle a large group of tiring runners or, just as damaging, having to contend with an unrealistically quick pace set by overmatched sprinters that have little hope of being around at the finish. So, while there have been 39 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby by leading from gate to wire, just one, War Emblem in 2002, accomplished the feat in the last 24 years.
Luck: It is a truism of racing that the best horse doesn't always win. Racing luck, including post position draw, weather conditions, track bias a trip can foil the best intentioned horse. It's difficult to handicap luck except to point out that horses who are quick and nimble sometimes can overcome bad luck.
Value: Many professional players insist that value is the most important factor to consider in any sports betting scenario. So it's not just a question of whether your horse can win the race but whether he's worth a bet at his price. An understanding of value is essential to successful Kentucky Derby betting.
