The MLB campaign may not even be a month old but it's not too soon for baseball betting practitioners to assess if expectations have matched reality during the first four weeks of the season.
Start with the Phillies, who, after adding Cliff Lee to a rotation that already included reigning Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, opened the season as a solid 3/1 favorite to win the 2011 World Series. Philadelphia, 15-6 straight up (SU) through April 24, has been as good as predicted, not only on the field but at the baseball betting windows, as well. In fact, through their first 21 games, the Phillies boast an ROI (Return On Investment) of +17.4 percent, meaning if you bet on Philadelphia in every game the team has played, you'd be sitting on a juicy double-digit profit.
The bottom line has not been as rewarding to backers of the Red Sox, the 9/2 second choice in World Series futures and the team expected to represent the American League in the October Classic. Boston got off to a horrendous start, losing 10 of its first 12 games, including six straight to open the season.
A five-game winning streak has brought the Bosox up to 10-11 but the team ROI is -20 percent, a devastating number for those who have consistently wagered on the Red Sox. Usually potent at home, the Red Sox ROI in Fenway park this year is just -10.1 percent, which must seem like a fabulous result if you've been playing Boston on the road, where the team ROI is a bankroll-busting -29.2 percent.
The Yankees, who at 5/1 are the only other team to open the year in single digits in futures, have been nearly as good against the baseball betting line as their American League East rival Red Sox have been bad. Through April 24, New York had an ROI if +15.6 percent. The Yankees one betting weakness seemed to be against left-handed starting pitching, where the team ROI was -5.6 percent.
As with the Red Sox, when performance fails to match potential, bettors who backed that team, suffer. That's certainly the case with the defending World Series champion Giants who entered the last week in April with a sub .500 record (10-11) and, more importantly, an overall ROI of -7.9 percent. San Francisco has been particularly disappointing at home, posting an ROI of just -16.1 percent.
The White Sox, who were expected to be a major contender in the admittedly contentious AL Central Division, are another team that has gotten off to a rough start (8-14 SU) and taken bettors down with them. Chicago has an ROI of -31.4 percent overall that includes -27.1 percent at home and -35.4 percent on the road. There's not much help for WindyCity bettors across town, either where the Cubs overall ROI is -9.6 percent, including -12 percent at Wrigley Field.
At the other end of the ledger, Cleveland and Colorado have been pleasant surprises, leading their respective division, the AL Central and NL West, while also rewarding bettors. The Indians, who were picked for fourth in their division behind the Twins, Tigers and White Sox, have an ROI of +33 percent through their first 21 games. What's more, the team has an amazing ROI of +72.3 in home games.
The Rockies are +18 percent through 21 games but, in an unexpected development. their wagering achievements have occurred on the road, not in the thin air at Coors Field. Colorado has an ROI of +38.7 percent away from home as compared to -0.4 percent at home. Last year, the Rockies were 52-29 SU and had an ROI of +7.2 percent at home and were 31-50 SU with an ROI of -23.7 percent on the road. You can't blame baseball bettors for scratching their heads.
The American League pennant winning Rangers are another team with a wagering split personality. Through 21 games. Texas had an overall ROI of +23.6 percent that included an ROI of +42.9 percent at home and -10.9 percent on the road. This too is a departure from 2010 when the Rangers were nearly identical as a betting prospect at home (-1.2 percent) as on the road (-1.8 percent).
The Mets have been the opposite of the Rangers, posting an overall negative ROI (-16.8 percent) that includes an ROI of -31.3 percent at home and +10 percent on the road.
It's early but savvy gamblers already are taking note of emerging baseball betting trends.
