Tiger Opens as Narrow US Open Golf Betting Favorite

Humbled by injury, humiliated by scandal, and with his No. 1 ranking hanging by the results of a single tournament, Tiger Woods opened as a narrow golf betting future book favorite to win the 2010 US Open, in Pebble Beach, California, June 17-20.

Woods, who has had reconstructive knee surgery and a neck injury book-ending numerous affairs of marital infidelity while being dogged by Phil Mickelson for the world’s top ranking, is quoted at odds as high as 6.70/1 at one of the 20 international sportsbooks we surveyed. The average price on Woods is about 6/1, more than double the 5/2 average odds at last year’s US Open and about four times his 3/2 composite price at the 2008 US Open, which he won.

Is this value?

Well, it certainly is a higher price than you’re accustomed to getting on the world’s No. 1 ranked golfer. The 6/1 odds also make Woods a statistically sound play…if arithmetic is all you consider. Woods has won 14 of the 56 Major events in which he’s participated, a terrific success rate of 25 percent, nearly identical to his winning percentage in non-Major events and far superior to what anyone else can claim. So, based solely on raw numbers in majors, Woods should be 3/1. Getting 6/1 is an overlay.

Of course golf is more than raw numbers and golf betting fans must consider what impact knee and neck injuries and the sullying of Woods’ image have done to both his physical skills and his previously unquestioned mental toughness. On a subjective basis, Woods, who has not won a Major in two years, could not have a more friendly setting than Pebble Beach, the site of his US Open victory in 2000. It was there and then that Woods scorched the Pacific Ocean hugging layout with a 12 under par performance and a 15-stroke victory. The 12 under par score is a US Open record and the 15-shot margin is a record for any Major event.

But not only Woods has changed in the decade since that performance; so has the course. In fact, course designer Arnold Palmer has added new tee boxes at holes 3, 9, 10, 11 and 13 as well as five new pot bunkers to the left side of hole 6. So the par 71 layout should play tougher than it did in 2000.

While 6/1 on Woods is tempting, some golf betting enthusiasts may prefer slightly better odds on 2010 Masters champion Phil Mickelson, who is seeking his first US Open victory. “Lefty” was no higher than 15/2 at any of the books surveyed and was even listed as a co-favorite with Woods at two of the 20 venues. Mickelson’s average future price to win the 110th edition of the US Open was 7/1.

While many fans and TV executive would relish a Woods-Mickelson pairing on the final day, there are other golfers who may look even more attractive, especially when you consider their double-digit price. Lee Westwood and Ernie Els would have to be included in that group. No golfer has been as consistent in the Major events over the last couple of years as Westwood. Over that span, Westwood has a runner-up finish in this year’s Masters; a tie for third in both the 2009 British Open and 2009 PGA Championship; and a third place finish in the 2008 US Open. Westwood is the third choice in US Open futures betting at odds of about 14/1.

Els, the 1997 US Open champion, also has been playing better lately and boasts experience in majors, factors which have led sportsbooks to list the South African at odds of 16/1.

Multiple Major winner Padraig Harrington is quoted at odds of 18/1 to find his best form while Rory McIlroy, yet another golfer who splits his time between the US and European tours, is held at odds of 20/1 to finally win his first Major victory.

Both Lucas Glover, the 2009 winner of this event, and Angel Cabrera, the hero in 2007, are 66/1 to win a second US Open championship.

Geoff Ogilvy, who scored a US Open triumph in 2006, is 28/1 to notch a second title, the same price as Anthony Kim, who seems on the verge of a Major breakthrough.

Longshots abound, including two-time US Open champion Retief Goosen at 33/1; popular Kenny Perry at 100/1; and venerable Fred Couples at 150/1.

So, whether you back Tiger, go with Phil or look for a more bountiful return with someone else, golf betting, especially on this US Open, is packed with value.