Like fingerprints, no two horse races are alike so if you had success wagering on the opening jewel in the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby, there are no assurances that your Preakness betting will be just as bountiful when the second bauble in the tiara rolls into Pimlico Race Course, outside Baltimore, May 15.
The Kentucky Derby usually yields a few clues to the Preakness but given a bulky full field of 20 in which several key players encountered traffic problems and a sloppy track condition that could have compromised the chances of others, horse racing bettors are left with several unanswered handicapping questions.
Foremost is whether the Derby victory of Super Saver was more the product of the winner's ability, racing luck, or the talents of jockey Calvin Borel. Certainly, all three played a part as Super Saver enjoyed a mishap-free journey, skimming up the rail under Borel to prevail by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 8/1.
It's difficult to make the case that Super Saver, who entered the Derby with just two victories in six lifetime starts and was winless in 2010, is superior to many of the horses he beat in Louisville. On paper, Super Saver appeared to be one of nearly a dozen contenders, no better and probably a bit worse than the top tier of horses. In fact, Super Saver's winning time of 2:04.45 was the slowest since 1989, albeit on a sloppy racetrack. Super Saver's Beyer Speed Figure, which takes into account track conditions, was 104, the second slowest in two decades. So, while Super Saver undoubtedly is a talented racehorse, he didn't win this Derby on ability alone.
He was fortunate, too. First, Super Saver drew a good post (four). Then he got a dream trip, stalking the early speed while avoiding the traffic troubles that plagued runner-up Ice Box, third place finisher Paddy O'Prado and favorite Lookin at Lucky. Borel played a huge role in that, coolly maintaining his rail-hugging position while other jockeys went wide.
Ice Box had the most difficulty, being forced to check (pull up) three times. But the fact that colt charged from 11th to second in the stretch does not mean he will be a strong contender in the Preakness. Heck, according to his trainer, Nick Zito, Ice Box may skip the Preakness and await the June 5 Belmont Stakes where the mile and a half distance may be more to the horse's liking than the mile and three-sixteenths Preakness, which is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby.
Paddy O'Prado lacked room in the stretch and Lookin at Lucky, who was unfortunate to have to start from the rail, was aggressively bumped early in the race, fell back to 18th and did well to finish sixth. Like Ice Box, neither Paddy O'Prado nor Lookin Lucky is a certainty to race in the Preakness.
Surely, with the first Triple Crown in 31 years at least a possibility, barring an injury, Super Saver will be in the Preakness field, perhaps as the favorite, not a bad thing really since the public betting choice has won 69 of 134 times in the race.
Interestingly, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado and Lookin at Lucky all have stablemates who could run in the Preakness if their connections decide to await the Belmont. Jackson Bend, who ran 12th in the Derby, First Dude, who was third in the Blue Grass Stakes but skipped the Derby, and Conveyance, who finished 15th at Churchill Downs, could be their respective fill-ins.
Make Music for Me, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, is yet another colt who might show up at the Preakness or await the Belmont Stakes.
In addition to First Dude, there are a number of other horses, called "new shooters," who passed on the Derby but are possible for the Preakness, including Derby Trial 1-2 finishers Hurricane Ike and Aikenite; Louisiana Derby runner-up A Little Warm; Florida Derby second place finisher Pleasant Prince; Lexington Stakes runner-up Bushwhacked; Tampa Bay Derby second place runner Schoolyard Dreams; Robert Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado; and Turf Melody, who finished fourth in the Illinois Derby.
The notion is that these horses will be fresher than those who ran two weeks earlier, a strategy that was effective three times in the last decade when Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) who won the Preakness without racing in the Kentucky Derby.
While the winner of the Kentucky Derby also has captured the Preakness in seven of the last 13 years, it looks as though winning the middle jewel in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown will be a severe test for both Super Saver and horse racing betting fans.
