The confetti may not have been swept from the streets of New Orleans yet but most sportsbooks already have NFL betting available on which team will win Super Bowl XLV next February. Every wager should have merit on its own—write that down and store it some place handy—but NFL futures can have additional value as a hedging tool.
Suppose, for example, you place a $100 wager on Indianapolis, the favorite to win the 2011 Super Bowl, at odds of 13/2. Let’s say the exact same thing happens next year as happened this past season and that the Saints wind up opposite the Colts in the NFL Championship as a 5-point underdog. One way to hedge would be to bet $220 on New Orleans at +5.
If Indianapolis wins and covers, you collect on your future book bet (+$650) but lose your side wager on the Saints (-$220) for a profit of $430.
If New Orleans wins, you lose your future book bet on Indianapolis (-$100) but win $200 on the Saints for a profit of $100.
A third scenario, and by far the best outcome for bettors in this situation, would be if Indianapolis wins the game but does not cover the spread. If that were the outcome, you would collect on both your future book bet on the Colts (+$650) and your side bet on the Saints (+$200) for a profit of $850.
Yet another way to play it would be to bet New Orleans on the money line. Five points usually translates to about +180 so you would be getting a plus on each team.
But what happens if you made a future book bet on the game’s underdog? It’s a little trickier but you still can hedge, though not with as large a profit margin. OK, so you’ve made a $100 bet on New Orleans at 7/1 and stand to win $700 if the Saints win the game. You have to bet the Colts on the money line, risking $420 while laying -210.
If Indianapolis wins, you win $200 on the money line bet but lose your $100 future book wager on New Orleans, for a profit of $100.
If New Orleans wins, you win your future book bet of $700 but lose $420 on the money line wager for a profit of $280.
So, in effect, the team you bet in futures only has to make it to the Super Bowl, not win it, to put you in a position to earn a profit.
That said, you still need to choose at least one of next year’s Super Bowl combatants to assure yourself a profit on the game. Let’s look at the contenders:
Both Indianapolis (13/2) and New Orleans (7/1) are set at quarterback with Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, respectively but each team could use a little more defense.
San Diego (8/1) likely will part company with running back LaDainian Tomlinson but has a dynamic passing attack and, along with New England (9/1) should be the main competition for Indianapolis in the AFC.
Dallas (10/1) will have an enormous advantage if it can get to the Super Bowl since it will be played in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas next February. Along with New Orleans, Dallas must contend with Green Bay (10/1) and Minnesota (11/1) in the NFC. The Vikings are an interesting team in that their odds will drop if QB Brett Favre decides to return for another season but lengthen if No. 4 finally retires. If you like Favre’s chances of playing another year, bet now.
Pittsburgh (12/1) and the New York Jets (14/1) are two more teams that could cause trouble in the AFC. The Steelers are just one year removed from their own Super Bowl Championship while the Jets, who made it to the AFC Championship game this season on the backs of their defense and running game, should get a greater contribution from second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez in 2010.
A case can also be made for the New York Giants (15/1), Philadelphia (18/1), Atlanta (20/1), Tennessee (22/1) and Baltimore (25/1), moderate longshots that have a chance under ideal conditions.
NFL betting fans with a flair for the dramatic may want to take a chance on St. Louis (150/1), the longest shot on the future book chart. Also in triple digits, and nearly as unrealistic, are Kansas City (125/1), TampaBay (125/1), Oakland (125/1) and Buffalo (100/1).
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
