The Super Bowl slammed the lid on the 2009 football season but NFL betting fans would be wise to examine the corpse before burying the gridiron body. In fact, an autopsy of the regular season unveils several valuable clues for an upcoming campaign that is just seven months away.
As has been the case for several years now, teams that did well straight up (SU), usually were beneficial to gamblers against the spread (ATS), as well. More simply put, if you want to be a winner, bet a winner.
Of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs, 10 of them also had winning marks ATS, one broke even and only Cincinnati, which finished 10-6 SU, failed to at least reach the .500 level ATS, finishing at 7-9 versus the points:
TeamSUATS
Indianapolis14-210-6
San Diego13-39-7
New Orleans13-38-8
Minnesota12-49-6-1
Green Bay11-511-4-1
Dallas11-59-7
Philadelphia11-59-7
Arizona10-68-7-1
New England10-68-7-1
Cincinnati10-67-9
NY Jets9-79-7
Baltimore9-78-7-1
Conversely, the teams at the bottom of standings also were disappointing ATS:
TeamSUATS
St. Louis1-157-9
Detroit2-144-10-2
Tampa Bay3-136-10
Washington4-126-9-1
Kansas City4-127-9
NFL betting is all about numbers; the pointspreads that sportsbooks offer and whether the gambler would prefer to lay that number or take it. Does a team have enough offensive firepower to cover a spread or, for that matter, put up enough points that taking the spread is the wiser option? Or, is a team so good on defense that it's not too risky to lay a spread because the opposition doesn't figure to score much? Or, is the underdog's defense so stingy that taking points is the better plan?
Turns out, it doesn't really matter if a team has a proficient offense or a stifling defense, so long as it has one of the two. Of the six teams that averaged at least 26 points per game last season—New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, San Diego, Philadelphia and Indianapolis—five of them had winning records against the spread and the sixth, the Saints, broke even at 8-8.
Do you prefer defense, a discipline on which an NFL betting enthusiast can rely, even in poor weather? Of the nine teams that gave up under 20 points per game last season—NY Jets, Dallas, Baltimore, San Francisco, Cincinnati, New England, Indianapolis, Carolina and Minnesota—eight of them also had winning records ATS with only the Bengals, again, failing to hit the mark.
NFL betting enthusiasts may be wondering if our pointspread autopsy also revealed any clues about over/under betting. Hmm, yes and no.
Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, only four of them played more regular season games that went over the total than under it. But all told the combined over/under for these dozen teams was only 89-99-4, a 52.6 percent advantage for the "under," which is not enough to beat the vigorish.
This is the seventh consecutive season that the combined records of teams that had winning records straight up also had winning records against the spread. On the other cleat, it's also the seventh straight year that teams with SU losing records also were losers ATS.
Finally, the question arises as to what value the concept of "betting a winner to be a winner" has without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Sure, you can't say with certainty which teams will be winners next season but, c'mon, although there will be surprises, both negative and positive, you have a pretty good idea which teams will be challenging for the Super Bowl.
Heading into this recently completed season, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, NY Giants, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Dallas and Arizona were the 10 teams with regular season over/under win totals of 9.5 or higher. Pittsburgh and Tennessee were flops but the other eight had winning records against the spread.
With Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas, New England, San Diego, Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, NY Giants and Philadelphia again predicted to be at or near the top of the regular season victory food chain, NFL betting fans would be prudent to wager on those prospective winners if they want to be winners, too.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
