We're about a third of the way through the regular season and you really can't blame that contingent of NBA betting fans who are crying "foul" for the way things are turning out on the hardcourt, this year.
The Heat, which opened the year as a 25/1 future book longshot to win the NBA Championship but was quickly reduced to a 7/5 favorite when LeBron James and Chris Bosh decided to move their gear to Miami, now are 7/2, a fall from grace, to be sure. You can still feel pretty happy if you had the good fortune to take the team at 25/1, but 7/5 looks a little pale matched against Miami's 21-9 record, second best in the Eastern Conference and just fifth best overall (through Dec. 21). That said, the Heat lead the Southeast Division and still have more than 50 regular season games to develop team cohesion and reward their backers by claiming the NBA's ultimate prize.
Orlando, which began the season as the 5/1 third choice in futures, also has disappointed, slipping to third place in the Southeast Division and 7/1 in the future book. The Magic shook up their roster recently, acquiring Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, but the team has lost two straight since then and eight of its last nine. But it's hard to count out a team with Dwight Howard in the paint, Jameer Nelson at the point and all that surrounding talent so some NBA betting aficionados might find 7/1 too attractive to ignore.
On the positive side, if you took a future book gamble on either San Antonio or Dallas at 25/1, you look like a genius. At 24-3, the Spurs, now down to 8/1 in futures, have the best record in the league and the Mavericks, at 23-5 and still 20/1 in futures, are second best.
Boston is a third team that's been even better than advertised. The Celtics, who began the season at 5/1 in futures only to drop to 8/1 when free agents James and Bosh landed in Miami, have improved to 3/1 in futures, mostly on the strength of their 22-4 record.
These five teams—Miami, Orlando, San Antonio, Dallas and Boston—also demonstrate how a failure to meet expectations or a dramatic exceeding of expectations also can result in major day-to-day NBA betting opportunities. For example, the Heat are just 13-16-1 against the spread (ATS) and the Magic are even worse, at 9-19 ATS. Miami and Orlando are a combined 1-6 as underdogs.
Now look at the Spurs, Mavericks and Celtics. San Antonio is 16-1-1 ATS, including 6-1-1 ATS on the road, the mark of a good team. Dallas is 17-9-2 ATS, including 10-1 ATS on the road and Boston is 15-10-1 ATS, including 9-4 ATS on the road. Want the real sportsbook killer? The teams are a combined 16-0 as underdogs.
Seemingly in a separate category from everyone else in the league are the two-time defending champion Lakers. After opening at 7/2, Los Angeles, which already has a seven-game lead in the Pacific Division, now is the 2/1 favorite in futures. The team is a meager 14-15 ATS and has yet to be an underdog, a sign of respect.
Denver, Phoenix and Cleveland are three more teams that have been devalued from more optimistic early season evaluations. The Nuggets, which began the season as a lively 10/1 choice in futures, now are offered at odds of 30/1. Coincidentally, Denver also has failed to match expectations at the betting windows, notching just a 9-16-1 record versus the points, including a dreadful 3-11-1 mark as the favorite.
The Suns, second in the Pacific Division despite their sub-.500 record, have slipped from 20/1 to 60/1 in the future book. Phoenix has been a liability to NBA betting devotees as well, posting just an 11-15-1 record ATS.
The Cavaliers opened the year at 8/1, were dumped to 75/1 when James bolted, and now that bet takers have seen them play, are offered at 200/1 in futures. Cleveland hasn't been a very good bet on a day-to-day basis either, posting an 11-16-1 mark versus the pointspread.
More positively, the Knicks, Jazz and Sixers have been good to bettors, amassing a combined record of 54-29-2 ATS that includes a terrific 31-12-1 mark in the role of underdogs.
Clearly, while there have been surprises during the first third of the season, some cagey NBA betting followers have been able to take advantage of those developments.
