Klitschko Is Big Boxing Betting Favorite Over Peter
August 24, 2010
champion Wladimir "Steel hammer" Klitschko defends his titles against Samuel "The Nigerian Nightmare" Peter in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11. With 75 knockouts between them, the fight is unlikely to go the scheduled 12-round distance. We'll have more to say about that in a bit.
Klitschko (54-3, 48 KOs), who has not lost in the last six years, a span in which he has won 12 bouts, opened as a solid -950 favorite (bet $950 to win $100). Take back +600 (bet $100 to win $600) that Peter (34-3, 27 KOs), who has won four in-a-row, all by stoppage, springs the upset.
Actually, this will be the second time Klitschko and Peter have met. In 2005, Peter had Klitschko on the canvas three times before the champion rallied to earn a unanimous (114-111) decision from all three judges. Interestingly, two years ago Peter also lost to Wladimir's brother, Vitali, the WBC heavyweight champion.
Peter, of course, is predicting a different outcome this time. "I had to wait a long time for the rematch. Now I will finish what I missed five years ago. This time I am going straight in and take him out. It's not going to last real long."
For his part, Klitschko seems to be taking the fight seriously. "Peter was one of the toughest fights of my career. He is an extremely hard puncher and has improved a lot in his last fights. I know what to expect on Sept. 11 and I will be prepared."
Although Klitschko, whose three defeats all are by knockout, undoubtedly will try to keep Peter at the end of his long jab, oddsmakers agree that the bout is unlikely to go the distance. In fact, gamblers have to lay -200 that the fight does not go 12 full rounds. Alternately, they can take +150 that the fight does wind up with the judges.
The total for the bout is 8 1/2 rounds with "over" the -138 favorite. "Under" is even money.
As has become common place nowadays, there's also a prop on how the fight will end:
Klitschko by KO, TKO or DQ:- 150
Klitschko by decision:+ 160
Peter by KO, TKO or DQ:+ 550
Peter by decision:+2800
Clearly, operators of sportsbooks believe at least two of the five possible outcomes, Peter by decision or a draw, are remote. Longshot players, take note.
There also is a proposition on whether the fight will end in the first six rounds or the last six rounds and which fighter will be victorious:
Klitschko by KO, TKO or DQ in rounds 1-6+ 350
Klitschko by KO, TKO or DQ in rounds 7-12+ 175
Peter by KO, TKO or DQ in rounds 1-6+1100
Peter by KO, TKO or DQ in rounds 7-12+1100
Of course, should the fight go the distance, sportsbooks would pocket all the money invested in this prop. That's also true for an individual round proposition where crystal ball gazers, tea leaf readers and those gamblers who just can't pass up long odds no matter how unlikely the payoff, will try to choose the winner in the exact round. There are 24 possibilities in this proposition with Klitschko offered at anywhere from a low of 12/1 (Round 8 or Round 9) to a high of 25/1 (Round 1) and Peter listed somewhere between a low of 33/1 (Round 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6) and a high of 66/1 (Round 11 or 12).
More intriguing, and with bettors having a far superior chance of cashing, is a proposition on knockdowns. You can lay -225 that one fighter will be knocked down; take +900 that both boxers see the canvas; or accept +200 that neither fighter is knocked off his feet.
Of note, five weeks after Wladimir Klitschko puts his titles on the line, big brother Vitali (40-2, 38 KOs) will do the same against Shannon Briggs (51-5, 45 KOs) in Hamburg, Germany, Oct. 16. The elder Klitschko opened as a -2000 favorite over Briggs. So a $100 parlay on the Klitschko brothers would win you all of $16.05. On the other glove, if you place a $100 parlay on underdog Peter (+600) with underdog Briggs (+800) and both win, you collect $6,200.
Boxing betting just got a whole lot more interesting.