It's Time to Assess MLB Betting Strategy

With nearly two months and a third of the Major League Baseball regular season in the record books and with an eye toward the rapidly approaching Dog Days of Summer, fans of MLB betting would be wise to assess what's worked and what hasn't worked so far in 2010.

The hottest team in the League is the Rays, who had amassed a MLB best 32-13 record through May 24. Not surprisingly, Tampa Bay backers, who have witnessed the team's future book price carved in half, from 11/1 to 11/2, have had a pretty good run at the betting windows. In fact, if you had bet an equal amount on the Rays in every game they played, you would have a return on investment (ROI) of +17.3 percent. Even better, Tampa Bay has an ROI of 43.4 percent on the road and boasts an amazing ROI of +73.9 percent as an underdog.

Given that there's no pointspread in baseball, no matter how big a number sportsbooks hang on Tampa Bay, if the Rays keep winning, so will their backers.

The Twins are another team that's been far better than expected, both on the field and at sportsbooks. Minnesota (26-18) not only was leading the American League Central Division but had an ROI of +4.7 percent overall, a pretty good rate of return in this economy. The Twins have been feasting on left-handed starting pitching to the tune of +32.8 percent ROI and have an ROI of +22.7 percent under the lights. Minnesota also has been a reliable play as a favorite, earning an ROI of 11.4 percent in that role. No wonder the future book price on the Twins has been slashed from 30/1 to 14/1.

And what of last year's World Series teams, the Yankees and Phillies? Both New York and Philadelphia have been close to what was advertised before the start of the season, although the Yanks are looking up at the Rays in the tough AL East while the Phillies lead the pack in the weaker NL East. There have been betting opportunities with each team, especially if you know where to look.

While New York's overall ROI is just +1.1 percent, the Bronx Bombers have an ROI of +10.5 percent at home and a fantastic +41.8 percent as a favorite of -200 (bet $200 to win $100) or greater, notching a 7-0 mark in that betting situation. But you also can bet the Yankees as an underdog, where they're +12.5 percent. Despite trailing Tampa Bay, New York's World Series future book price has dropped from 3/1 to 5/2.

The best way to bet on the Phillies has been as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-2 in that situation for an ROI of +65.6 percent. The Phillies look like the team to beat in the National League, which helps explain why sportsbooks have lowered their World Series future book odds on Philadelphia from 13/2 to 9/2.

What has happened to baseball in the Windy City? Neither the Cubs nor the White Sox have been very kind to Major League Baseball betting fans this season. The Cubbies have an overall ROI of -17.2 percent and have burned up wagering dollars at a rate of -32 percent when Chicago is a favorite. Floundering in the NL Central Division behind the Cardinals and Reds, the Cubs have been boosted from 14/1 to 50/1 in World Series futures.

The White Sox have been just as bad as the Cubs, posting an overall ROI of -17.3 percent. Like the Cubs, the pale hose have been dreadful as favorites, wasting cash at a -17.9 percent clip. With an ROI of -20.6 percent, the White Sox have been particularly inept inside their own AL Central Division. Once considered a contender, the White Sox have dropped from 12/1 to 75/1 in the World Series future book.

Oakland has been a surprise team in the American League, moving from 125/1 to 45/1 in World Series futures, after a good start. The Athletics have been a team of stark betting contrasts, earning an ROI of +27.3 percent at home while losing money at a rate of -38 percent in road games. Check the schedule!

Obviously, the ladder between ascending and descending future book prices not only reflects a team's performance on the field but how it affects baseball betting fans as well.

For the most part, teams that have played well and boosted their World Series future book aspirations also have proven profitable for baseball betting enthusiasts. Teams that have struggled in futures and played poorly have been horrible for gamblers.