It's been 20 years since the NFL waved good bye to an uninterrupted 16-game schedule, giving each team a bye week during the regular season while providing NFL betting enthusiasts with yet another variable to consider when matching cash to conviction.
The obvious conclusion would be that teams coming off a bye week would benefit from the rest and, so long as their opponent hadn't also enjoyed a seven-day sojourn, would be a strong bet the following weekend. After all, not only would injured players have more time to heal but the idle team's coaching staff would have an extra seven days to analyze film and prepare a game plan for an opponent that was concentrating on a different foe.
But don't run to the windows just yet.
Teams coming off the bye week are 352-314-1 straight up (SU) since 1990 and while that beats losing, (52.8%) it's less than an overwhelming endorsement that a week of rest makes a huge difference in the fortunes of NFL teams.
Much more revealing is that when the pointspread is factored into the bye week equation--and, let's face it, that's what really matters to NFL betting fans--teams with a week of rest are just 339-320-8 against the spread (ATS), a success rate of only 51.4%, which isn't enough to beat the 10/11 vigorish. So, contrary to conventional wisdom, betting on the team coming off a bye is not a winning proposition.
Obviously, oddsmakers have done a wonderful job assessing the impact of the bye week, establishing pointspreads that are so accurate that neither side enjoys a significant wagering advantage.
But that's the big picture. Let's see if the numbers stand up to closer scrutiny:
Home favorites are 116-120-4 while home underdogs are 62-55-1, making home teams 178-175-4 ATS overall, confirming that there's no wagering advantage for bettors there.
Road underdogs with rest are 91-103-6 ATS since 1990 so there's no real pattern there, either.
In fact, the only sub-division where a rested team has shown an advantage is as a road favorite. In that spot, the visiting chalk is 69-45, for a solid 60.5% winning percentage against the spread.
Another way to tackle the rest factor is to analyze individual NFL teams to see if their past results offer any clues to this season's schedule. By the way, the earliest a team has off is during Week 4; the latest, during Week 10:
Arizona: The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS on the road, which is where they'll be versus Seattle, Oct. 24.
Atlanta: The Falcons are 3-6 as home favorites, which they'll be when they host TampaBay, Nov. 7.
Chicago: The Bears are 8-3 ATS on the road, a position they'll occupy when they travel to Toronto to take on Buffalo, Nov. 7.
Cincinnati: The Bengals are 3-6 ATS on the road after a bye week. Cincinnati goes to Atlanta, Oct. 24.
Denver: The Broncos are an impressive 11-3 ATS at home which is just where they'll be when Kansas City visits, Nov. 14.
Green Bay: The Packers, who travel to Minnesota Nov. 21, are 8-4 as road underdogs after a week's rest.
Houston: The Texans, who visit Indianapolis Nov, 1, are 1-3 as road underdogs after a week's rest.
Miami: The Dolphins, who travel to Green Bay Oct. 17, are 5-3-1 as road underdogs after a week's rest
New England: The Patriots are 1-6 as home favorites, which they'll surely be when Baltimore visits, Oct. 17.
New Orleans: The Saints are 1-5 as home favorites after rest. New Orleans hosts Seattle, Nov. 21
New York Giants: The Giants are 7-14-1 ATS overall, after a week's rest. New York is at Seattle, Nov. 7.
Philadelphia: The Eagles, who welcome the Colts Nov. 7, are an NFL-best 16-6 ATS in game's following a bye week.
Seattle: The Seahawks are 0-7 as road underdogs after a week's rest, a position in which they'll probably find themselves at Chicago, Oct. 17.
Clearly, the bye week has a different effect on different teams in different situations, factors that must be assessed in any NFL betting strategy.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
