Big Dance 1st Round College Basketball Betting

College basketball betting doesn't get any more exciting than the opening round of the NCAA Men's Tournament, March 18, 19. The 32 Big Dance pairings, often matching teams that would never play each other, is a test of guts and guile for both bet makers and bet takers. Now you know why they call it March Madness.

Gamblers and operators of sportsbooks alike will be asking themselves how much is too much when they eye gaping pointspreads in games matching a quartet of No. 1 ranked teams against as many No. 16 ranked teams in four separate regional contests. The spreads associated with the No. 2 versus No. 15 match-ups aren't likely to be much less lopsided.

With recent history as a guide, let's take a look at the seeding match-ups:

No. 1 versus No. 16: There's never been a No. 16 seed that's beaten a No. 1 seed outright so unless you fancy yourself some type of wagering groundbreaker, banish any thought of trying to take the underdog on the money line. But taking the No. 16 seed plus the points is a legitimate play. In fact, of the 24 games played between No. 1 and No. 16 seeds since 2004, No. 16 seeds actually hold a narrow 12-11-1 edge. That's not a system but it does show that certain dogs are worth a play. It was an even split last year with North Carolina (-28) and Connecticut (-22), respectively, covering against Radford and Tennessee-Chattanooga. But Pittsburgh (-21) and Louisville (-22) failed to cover against East Tennessee State and Morehead State, respectively. Pick your spots.

No. 2 versus No. 15: No. 15 seeds have enjoyed a strong 20-12 advantage over No. 2 seeds against the spread (ATS) since 2002. It was a 2-2 split last year with Duke (-24) covering against Binghamton; Oklahoma (-18) getting the job done against Morgan State; Memphis (-19) failing to cover against Northridge; and Michigan State (-18) coming up short of the spread versus Robert Morris. As in the 1-16 match-ups, all the No. 2 seeds won by comfortable margins but sometimes the spread was lost when reserves were playing in the final minutes.

No. 3 versus No. 14: No. 3 seeds boast a 16-11-1 pointspread advantage over No. 14 seeds the last seven seasons. Most recently, No. 3 seeds have covered 10 of the last 12 meetings, including three of four in 2009. Are oddsmakers giving too much credit to No. 14 seeds and/or too little to No. 3 seeds? Probably not, given that the games have been close to the spread. Last year, Kansas (-9 1/2) won by 10, Syracuse (-11 1/2) won by 15 and Missouri (-14) won by 19. Villanova (-15 1/2) was the only No. 3 seed to miss, winning by 13. The most stunning upset in this seed match-up had to be No. 14 Bucknell (+13 1/2) beating No. 3 Kansas in the 2005 tournament.

No. 4 versus No. 13: The higher seed enjoys a modest 15-13 edge but pointspread victories by unheralded teams such as Cleveland State, Siena, San Diego State, Vermont, Bradley, Louisiana-Lafayette, East Tennessee State, Ohio and Western Kentucky prove what a great equalizer the spread can be. The first five No. 13 seeds mentioned won outright so straight-up upsets are possible.

No. 5 versus No. 12: Members of the media often promote this match-up as the one most likely to produce an upset and with good reason. No. 12 seeds swept No. 5 seeds last year ATS and even won three of the four match-ups straight up as underdog No. 12s Western Kentucky, Arizona and Wisconsin ousted respective higher seeds and favorites Illinois, Utah and Florida State.

No. 6 versus No. 11: Since 2003, the higher seed holds a 15-13 pointspread advantage.

No. 7 versus No. 10: Despite going just 1-3 ATS in 2009, No. 7 seeds have an 18-10 pointspread advantage versus teams seeded 10th.

No. 8 versus No. 9: Be advised, oddsmakers are under no obligation to make the higher seed the favorite so it should come as little surprise that the No. 9 seed has been favored as much as the No. 8 seed in recent years. This pointspread reversal is true in other pairings as well, though not as frequently. For the record, No. 9 seeds are 15-11-2 ATS and No. 8 teams, since 2003.

Clearly, oddsmakers have had some difficulty assigning odds to the bigger mismatches and, if you prefer underdogs, your best college basketball betting opportunities in the first round are with the No. 15 seeds. College basketball betting fans who prefer favorites will want to take a look at No. 3 and No. 7 seeds.