Even if you've done well during the long NBA betting season, there's no guarantee that your good fortune will continue when the playoffs tip-off, April 17. The post-season is a whole new ball game for gamblers, bringing new challenges and opportunities but no expectation that what worked through the fall and winter will have any betting relevance into the spring and early summer.
For starters, with everything on the line and elimination looming, there's a much higher level of intensity during the post-season. So, while every team was guilty of not playing every minute of every game with maximum effort during the regular season, you won't see a lack of hustle during the playoffs. So, if you earned a few bucks during the regular season by carefully perusing the schedule and choosing "sandwich" games (a contest of lesser interest in the middle of a couple of high-profile games) where one team may not have been as emotionally involved, don't count on that angle holding up during the playoffs.
A not too distant example is Cleveland, which will head into the playoffs with the best record in the NBA. The Cavaliers covered the pointspread against playoff bound San Antonio on March 8 and beat the number against Eastern Conference rival Boston on March 14. But sandwiched in between those two playoff-rich foes was a game against lowly Philadelphia on March 12. You guessed it: The Cavs didn't cover against the Sixers.
Like its college cousin, the NCAA Tournament, the intensity players demonstrate during the NBA Playoffs is obvious in another calculable way, stauncher defense. For NBA betting fans, especially those who enjoy assaulting sportsbooks with over/under bets, that usually translates into lower scores. Of course, oddsmakers know this too so it's not unusual to see playoff totals six or seven points lower than you'd see during the regular season.
While defense plays a greater role in the post-season, the wearying effect of travel is not nearly as important a factor as it is during the regular season. Sophisticated sports betting practitioners have long understood that the home court holds only a minimal advantage unless the visiting team has been forced to expend energy to get there. In other words, it's not the floor itself or the crowd that makes the difference; it's that the visiting team often has had to travel across time zones to get there. But that factor has been all but eliminated in the playoffs where, after the first game, the teams usually share the same travel schedule. That helps explain how quality teams such as the Celtics, Spurs and Cavaliers could be eliminated from last year's playoffs despite holding the home court advantage.
In addition to individual game pointspreads and over/under bets, once the playoff match-ups are determined, sportsbooks will hang prices on which teams will win each individual series. Nearly all sportsbooks also will offer proposition bets on the post-season, including which team will win each series in exactly how many games.
Until the match-ups are known, basketball betting fans can fill the void with futures, a bet that can provide the gambler with valuable options, including situations where you can bet one team on the money line while holding a future book ticket on the other.
Not surprisingly, as of early April, Cleveland was the 7/5 favorite to win it all with the defending champion LA Lakers next at future book odds of 2/1. Since each of those teams is locked into its position atop the Eastern and Western Conferences, respectively, barring a major injury, you can expect little movement in those prices. In case you're wondering, the Cavaliers won and covered both their meetings with the Lakers this year.
Orlando is the third choice in futures at odds of 6/1. The Magic knocked off both the Celtics and Cavaliers before losing to the Lakers in last year's NBA finals and with Dwight Howard patrolling the paint, could be a difficult out.
If you consider a team with double-digit odds as a longshot, then all 13 other teams in the NBA post-season are outsiders. Based strictly on price, Denver, Dallas and Utah are the most plausible, each at odds of 10/1. But while the Nuggets hold the series edge over the Lakers, the team has struggled since Coach George Karl has given up the reins to battle cancer, and the Mavericks and Jazz have had limited post-season success, all factors that bettors will have to consider.
At 12/1, Boston can't be eliminated from championship consideration but future book prices on the other playoff teams escalate rapidly after that.
Clearly, gamblers intent on NBA Playoffs betting can get started now.
