Combined, Denver, Kansas City and Oakland have amassed just one winning season against the spread (ATS) over the past four seasons, a dismal statistic that NFL betting wonks will try to turn to their advantage in 2010. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2009 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): The Chargers are 20-4 straight up (SU) and 15-8-1 ATS within the AFC West over the last four seasons so there’s no question which is the team to beat, both on the field and at the betting windows. San Diego has covered 10 of its last 12 games against teams from the AFC, the division that AFC West teams will face this year so gamblers once again have high expectations for success. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 10/1; AFC Championship 5/1; AFC West 2/5; Make the Playoffs 1/7; Over/Under regular season wins 10 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU:98-94
ATS: 98-85-9
HF:35-25-3
HD:17-16
AF:17-19
AD:29-25-6
Sportsbook Buster: The Chargers are a solid 35-25-3 as home favorites the past 12 seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: San Diego has covered six of its last seven games against AFC West rival Denver.
DENVER BRONCOS (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9, O/U): The Broncos have had a miserable off-season and training camp, losing more than a dozen key players to trade or injury but that doesn’t mean that gamblers won’t be able to find spots to bet on and against Denver in certain situations. For example, while the Broncos are 6-0 versus AFC foes as underdogs coming off a week of rest, Denver is just 4-16 ATS the week before playing San Diego. There always are opportunities for astute NFL betting fans. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 50/1; AFC Championship 25/1; AFC West 6/1; Make the Playoffs 3/1; Over/Under regular season wins 7 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU:113-99
ATS: 89-95-8
HF:34-47-4
HD:7-3-1
AF:23-25-2
AD:25-20-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Broncos are only 34-47-4 as home favorites but 7-3-1 as home dogs, since 1998.
Sports Betting Angle: Denver has covered eight of its last 10 games against the NY Jets.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (5-11 SU, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Jason Campbell gives the Raiders instant credibility at quarterback but we’ll have to see if that changes Oakland from a play-against team to one which gamblers can sometimes trust. The Raiders have covered five straight games as conference underdogs of nine or more points but have 11 straight pointspread losses as a favorite. It’s all about picking your spots. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 125/1; AFC Championship 66/1; AFC West 7/1; Make the Playoffs 7/2; Over/Under regular season wins 6 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU: 78-114
ATS: 82-105-5
HF:22-32-2
HD:14-25-1
AF:9-12-1
AD:37-36-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Raiders are just 36-57-3 ATS at home the last 12 seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: Oakland has covered its last four visits to both Denver and Kansas City.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): The Chiefs are just 10-38 SUover the past three seasons and figure to be wretched on the field again this year. But Kansas City’s pointspread record over the same time span is 22-25-1, which is not great but not awful either, meaning that there are times when KC is a reasonable betting play. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 150/1; AFC Championship 75/1; AFC West 8/1; Make the Playoffs 4/1; Over/Under regular season wins 6.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2009)
SU:86-106
ATS: 94-92-6
HF:30-27-3
HD:16-17-3
AF:12-18
AD:36-30
Sportsbook Buster: The Chiefs have covered eight of their last 11 home games versus the Chargers.
Sports Betting Angle: Kansas City has covered its last seven visits to Oakland.
Legend:
SU= Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF= Home Favorite
HD= Home Underdog
AF= Away Favorite
AD= Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the fourth of an eight-part NFL preview series.
Next: Analyzing the NFC East
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering college football betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
