Gamblers have understood the importance of Mother Nature for ages, or at least from the early seventies when a few enterprising bettors began to chart wind velocity and direction in select MLB cities to help them gain an edge wagering on baseball totals.
NFL betting purists may scoff at the notion of climate being a significant factor on the gridiron but if history is any guide, weather can be fate’s accomplice during the upcoming post-season.
An analysis of the last seven years of NFL Playoffs reveals that when you combine underdogs with cold-weather venues, underdogs beat the number more than 60 percent of the time. In fact, dogs have compiled a 26-17 record against the spread (ATS) in those 43 games.
But in order to employ the system, you have to first identify which cities are likely to have you reaching for an extra blanket and a mug of hot chocolate in January. Data from the National Weather Service tells us that any list should include Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England (Foxboro), New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Seattle, Tennessee (Nashville), and Washington. It is those 16 NFL cities that are most affected by winter conditions such as snow, rain, ice and wind. For the record, the Bills, Browns and Redskins have not hosted a playoff game in the last seven years and Detroit, Indianapolis and Minnesota keep their players and fans in relative temperature comfort inside domed stadiums.
The reasons for the success of underdogs in January should be readily apparent: severe weather conditions tend to act as equalizers, often limiting the offensive capabilities of superior teams and turning the contest into a defensive struggle where points are at a premium. It’s very difficult to throw the ball in high winds or a snowstorm (as even strong-armed quarterbacks such as Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger have discovered), run on a treacherously icy or wet field, or even hold the football for field goals in a heavy rain. Did you see the role 42 mph gusts played in the Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22 when OregonState punter Johnny Hekker had back-to-back punts of six yards each into the wind after launching one of 64 yards with the wind at his back?
Last season’s playoffs weren’t as warm to the "cold weather city system" as years past with underdogs just breaking even at 2-2. The Ravens (+3) were outright winners over the Titans in Nashville before failing to cover against the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers in the AFC title game in Pittsburgh, losing 23-14 as a 6-point underdog. The Eagles (+4) took out the Giants in The Meadowlands, 23-11, but San Diego (+6 1/2) couldn’t keep up with the red hot Steelers in Pittsburgh, losing 35-24.
You might assume that adverse weather conditions also often facilitate an "under" result but the margin is minimal, just 22-20-1 in favor of the "under" in those same 43 games, a success rate of 52 percent, which isn’t enough to beat the vigorish.
Of course, you can’t expect that every cold weather city will suffer with inclement conditions in January. For bettors, it’s a roll of the dice but one they probably should make.
Astute gamblers look at it this way: If you bet the dog early in the week and it turns out to be 50 degrees and sunny in Philadelphia, well, at least you’ve got the underdog at a fair price. But if the weather turns nasty, and wet, windy or snowy conditions develop, you’ve unleashed the mutt in weather that only a dog could love…and stand to benefit big time from this dog day afternoon.
Given that NFL betting is so challenging, something that is particularly true in the post-season, it never hurts to have Mother Nature on your side.
