NFL BETTING: STRAIGHT UP LOSERS WERE POINTSPREAD LOSERS, TOO
They still may be sweeping the streets of confetti in Pittsburgh but NFL betting fans just about everywhere else already have turned their attention to the 2009 season.
Donning rubber gloves and grabbing a scalpel, it's not too early to autopsy the rotting carcass of the 2008 NFL campaign, searching for pointspread clues that may lead to success in September.
One trend, as it has in the previous six seasons, again was validated last year: Straight up (SU) losers are losers against the spread (ATS), too. In fact, of the 11 teams that had SU regular season losing records in 2008, not a single one of them had a winning record ATS:
TeamSUATS
Buffalo Bills7-97-9
Cincinnati Bengals4-11-17-9
Cleveland Browns4-126-9-1
Detroit Lions0-167-9
Green Bay Packers6-107-8-1
Jacksonville Jaguars5-114-12
Kansas City Chiefs 2-148-8
Oakland Raiders5-117-9
San Francisco 49ers7-97-8-1
St. Louis Rams2-146-10
Seattle Seahawks4-127-8-1
While it may not have been easy to predict that teams such the Browns, Jaguars or Seahawks would wind up with losing SU records, other outfits such as the Bengals, Lions and Chiefs entered 2008 with dim prospects for success.
So, from an NFL betting standpoint, avoiding weak teams is must. It's far better to concentrate on teams that you expect to have a strong SU record. At the top of that list last year would have been the Super Bowl XLII participants, the New York Giants and New England Patriots. The Giants finished the regular season 12-4 SU and also had a 12 mark ATS. The Patriots, despite losing quarterback Tom Brady in their opener, ended the year 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS.
The Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS), the Tennessee Titans (12-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) and the Baltimore Ravens (11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS) were three more SU winners that also excelled against the spread.
But not every team that was successful on the field also helped NFL betting fans at the windows. The Indianapolis Colts were 12-4 SU during the regular season but 7-8-1 ATS and the Carolina Panthers were 12-4 SU and 7-7-2 ATS.
And what of the five teams that finished the NFL regular season at 8-8 SU and thus were neither winners nor losers? Appropriately enough, two of those teams, New Orleans and Houston, had winning records ATS, two others, Denver and Washington, had losing records ATS, and one, San Diego, was 8-8 ATS. Oh, and while we're here, let's dismantle one myth; that the Broncos are a good bet in the thin air at Mile High Stadium. Denver was 0-8 ATS at home last year.
So, what can we make of last season's pointspread results and, more importantly, what does that portend for the upcoming campaign?
Certainly, chasing teams that don't perform well on the field is a losing proposition. Last season's 11 under .500 teams were 73-88-4 ATS, a 45 percent winning average.
On the other cleat, the 16 teams with winning straight up records notched a 138-113-5 record ATS, a 55 percent winning average. These numbers have been fairly consistent over the past six years.
The bottom line then is, in general, to try to stay away from teams that don't figure to be playoff contenders and concentrate on the squads that should be vying for post-season prominence. Heading into 2009, the Steelers, Cardinals (because they're in a weak division), Giants, Patriots, Colts, Titans and Panthers would seem to fit that bill.
If recent history is a guide, failure to heed the NFL betting tips gleaned from our autopsy could put you in a wagering body bag, too.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com
