The draft has been the biggest non-sporting event in sports for decades but recently it's become a part of the NFL betting menu.
In fact, although many books are offering future book wagering on the 2010 Super Bowl, the AFC and NFC Conference races and the league's eight divisions, nothing is as immediate for NFL betting enthusiasts as the draft, April 25.
Books are offering odds on which player will be chosen first in the collegiate flesh market lottery and, for good measure, who will be drafted second.
Of course, there's more to the draft than just the players. There also are the teams that draft them, the order in which they pick, and their positional needs. You can't assess one without the other.
The Lions, by virtue of their perfectly imperfect 0-16 campaign last year, go first. Detroit, which averaged only 16.7 PPG while yielding 32.3 PPG, needs help everywhere but quarterback, where Dan Orlovsky compiled a QB rating of 72.6 last year, clearly is the most pressing need.
So it should come as little surprise then that oddsmakers list Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford as the 13/16 favorite to be drafted first. Stafford, who has a strong arm, is listed ahead of USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, the only other signal-caller expected to be chosen in the opening round of the 2009 draft. There's also a possibility the Lions could draft an offensive tackle but there's great depth at that position this year and Detroit probably could find a serviceable player with their second opening round selection at No. 20.
Rookie quarterbacks don't always make a difference but the success of Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco last year, added to the "me-too" nature of a league where teams copy what has most recently been successful, has many draft watchers thinking that the Lions won't be able to resist Stafford.
Baylor's Jason Smith, by consensus the most accomplished of this year's crop of offensive tackles, is the 3/2 second choice to be selected as the first player chosen in the 2009 draft. WakeForest linebacker Aaron Curry is quoted at odds of 3/1 to bolt to the front of the line. Eugene Monroe, an offensive tackle from Virginia, is 4/1 to be the first name called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell with Brian Orakpo, a pass-rushing defensive end/linebacker from Texas, offered at odds of 8/1.
After that quintet of players, it's at least 18/1 that anyone else is chosen first in the draft.
The aforementioned Smith is even money to be the second player selected in the draft. The choice belongs to the Rams, who need a stud at left tackle. Monroe is 6/5 to move ahead of Smith but St. Louis also could use some help at linebacker, putting Curry in the mix at odds of 8/5. Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree, the premier wide receiver in the draft, is listed at odds of 9/5. If you think this betting book seems to have way too much vigorish in it, we agree.
Trades always are a possibility so it wouldn't be a monumental surprise if the Lions, with so many holes to fill, moved out of the top spot in exchange for some extra selections. That could result in a significant shake-up of the draft, depending on which team moved up to the top spot.
Interestingly, the biggest personnel move, especially as it impacts future book NFL betting, may already have taken place when the Broncos peddled disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton and several draft picks.
If the odds are any indication—-and they almost always are—-the trade probably did significantly more to help Chicago's immediate fortunes than it did for Denver's chances. The Bears, who began the season at odds of 28/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV, now are offered at a far more competitive 20/1. However, the Broncos remain unchanged at odds of 35/1.
In addition, now that the franchise has a Pro Bowl quarterback, Chicago has advanced from 14/1 to 10/1 to win the NFC Championship. Meanwhile, Denver still is 18/1 to capture the AFC Championship.
Long a vehicle for personnel change that affected other forms of NFL betting, in a development that in hindsight now seems inevitable, the draft has become the subject of wagering, itself.
