Horse racing betting fans, long famous for carping about the difficulty of handicapping races, will have a legitimate complaint when the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is contested at Churchill Downs, May 2.
The winner of the race, even if it's the favorite and it's debatable which 3-year-old that will be almost certainly will pay double digits, making the opening leg of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown a fabulous betting race.
Can't complain about that.
The full field of 20 will have more than a half-dozen bona fide contenders, many of them having earned their trip to Louisville and a chance at the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby by running in one of a series of mile-and-one-eighth prep races.
Using odds supplied by the Daily Racing Form, let's look at the major contenders:
I Want Revenge (9/2): Overcame a terrible start and traffic problems to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct against a modest field. Has been a much improved horse since transferring from the synthetic tracks in California to the dirt surfaces in New York that are similar to what he'll find waiting for him at Churchill Downs.
Quality Road (5/1): Dominating victory in the Florida Derby must be tempered by the news that he suffered a quarter crack. Still could be the favorite if he trains well, convincing bettors the injury is not serious. Has enough requisite speed to handle most pace scenarios and get a good trip, a significant asset in a bulky field.
Dunkirk (6/1): Was the runner-up in the Florida Derby on a track that had a bias for horses attending the pace. Lightly raced with just three career starts but highly regarded (purchased as a 2-year-old for $3.7 million), many feel that he could be the beneficiary if the pace is fast in the Kentucky Derby.
Friesan Fire (8/1): There's lots of ways to bring a horse to his peak so the seven week layoff shouldn't be a big concern. Friesan Fire was flattered when the horse he beat in the Louisiana Derby, Papa Clem, came back to win the Arkansas Derby.
Pioneerof the Mile (8/1): Boasts four consecutive graded stakes wins, including the Santa Anita Derby, but has yet to race on anything but a synthetic surface. Will the stretch menace take to the Churchill Downs dirt? His workouts over the surface should yield some clues. Trainer Bob Baffert has three Kentucky Derby victories.
Chocolate Candy (15/1): Was compromised by slow fractions in finishing second to Pioneerof the Mile in the Santa Anita Derby and like the winner, hasn't raced over a dirt track. He's a nice colt that probably will be a nice price.
Desert Party (15/1): Ships half way around the world after finishing second in the United Arab Emirates Derby. His workouts should offer some insight into how he managed the trip but no horse has ever won the Derby this way.
Musket Man (20/1): Illinois Derby winner has won five of six career starts but questions linger regarding the strength of his pedigree and his ability to get the mile-and-a-quarter distance.
Papa Clem (20/1): Won the Arkansas Derby by a half-length, beating a horse (Old Fashioned) with a cracked knee who was subsequently forced into retirement. He'll have to improve significantly to capture the Kentucky Derby.
Hold Me Back (20/1): Second in the Blue Grass Stakes on the synthetic track at Keeneland after losing a ton of ground but is he better than the race winner, General Quarters?
General Quarters (30/1): Trained by Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, the former $20,000 claimer is the blue-collar, feel-good colt of the field.
Regal Ransom (30/1): Beat Desert Party in the UAE Derby, largely on the front end. Not much perceived speed in the Kentucky Derby so he could be the pace-setter, which makes him a dangerous longshot.
Unless you feel strongly about a horse at a fair price, you might want to play the Kentucky Derby the way professional horse players approach every race, not by trying to pick the winner of the race but by looking to make a good bet. In the end, that's the key to horse racing betting success.
