The big risk, big reward strategy that is an inherent part of future book Kentucky Derby betting, never has been more evident that this year when several winter favorites stumbled in the spring on their way to the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
But wagering optimism, like hope, springs eternal, especially when one bettor’s misfortune becomes another player’s opportunity. In the future book, that translates into a greater chance for success for some horses as other 3-year-old thoroughbreds prove unworthy, or at least diminish the enthusiasm of their backers of meeting the sternly unforgiving test that is the Kentucky Derby.
Old Fashioned, the Kentucky Derby favorite after last year’s 2-year-old champion Midshipman was scratched from contention with an injury (now there’s a prime example of misfortune becoming opportunity) was the most prominent colt to fall from grace recently. Horses can survive a loss on the way to Derby success—-even the great Secretariat hiccupped on his journey to Louisville—-but wilting in the stretch of the Rebel Stakes and getting beat by 56/1 Win Willy, a $26,000 yearling purchase, March 14, hardly inspires confidence. Those with optimism still can get 12/1 on Old Fashioned.
Pioneerof The Mile won his latest Derby prep, the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 14 but not everyone was impressed with the effort. Call the colt’s third straight stakes victory more workmanlike than impressive and take 12/1 (down from 20/1) if you think Pioneerof The Mile can carry his best form from the synthetic surfaces of California to the traditional dirt of Kentucky.
On the other hoof, Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge are two colts who didn’t disappoint. Friesan Fire cruised in the Louisiana Derby, scoring by more than seven lengths on a sloppy track while having his Kentucky Derby future book odds dropped from 22/1 to 10/1. I Want Revenge seemed to relish the move from synthetic surfaces of California to the dirt at the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, March 7, winning the New York race by 8 1/2-lengths. A 40/1 shot before his Gotham score, you’ll be fortunate to get 10/1 on him now.
Dunkirk, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse and Desert Party are four more that merit attention.
No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since 1882 but Dunkirk, as evidenced by his 10/1 future book price, may be able to overcome history. We’ll know more after he races in the Florida Derby, March 28 but if you like him, bet now, because the price surely will be lower if he wins that Gulfstream race.
At 15/1, Quality Road, who won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, is a better price than Dunkirk, who he’ll meet in the Florida Derby. It’s unlikely both horses will emerge from the race with their Kentucky Derby credentials intact.
The Pamplemousse (12/1) romped in the Sham Stakes, setting up a showdown with Pioneerof The Mile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby, April 4. Like the Florida Derby, it’s probable that only one of the two will come out of the race with greater promise for a victory in Kentucky.
Desert Party, a 20/1 proposition, will attempt to win the Kentucky Derby while preparing in the United Arab Emirates. Horses that have gone that route never have been successful but Desert Party will be readied for Louisville when he races in the UAE Derby, March 28.
Longshot players may want to take a chance with either of a pair of 40/1 horses, Chocolate Candy or Musket Man. The former won the El Camino Real Derby but will be tested for class in the Santa Anita Derby. The latter claimed a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, March 14, and will meet tougher foes in either the Wood Memorial or Illinois Derby, both on April 4.
With still weeks to go before the first Saturday in May, it appears that handicapping insight and good timing again will be the keys to future book Kentucky Derby betting this year.
