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Betting the Mid-Majors (Part 1)

November 24, 2009

While the majority of college basketball wagering attention is focused on the 11 major conferences, teams from 11 mid-major conferences frequently are on the board and, thanks to an automatic invitation from the NCAA, at least one team from each of those leagues will be at the Big Dance in March. That's reason enough for college basketball betting aficionados to, at a minimum, follow the leading contenders in each of those conferences. Let's take look at the most likely candidates to take part in March madness. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2008/09 season are in parentheses:

 

BIG SKY CONFERENCE

MONTANA STATE (15-17 SU, 17-12 ATS, 13-15 O/U): The Bobcats return four starters to the unit that made it to the conference championship last season, including all-star candidates Will Bynum (10.7 PPG) and Bobby Howard (10.2 PPG).

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-4

Home Underdog:  1-2

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  11-5

Neutral Site:   1-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Bobcats were 12-5 ATS in road games.

Sports Betting Angle: Montana State was 9-3 ATS after a pointspread loss.

 

WEBER STATE (21-10 SU, 19-9 ATS, 16-10 O/U): The Wildcats have a trio of starters back from the team that ran to a 15-1 league mark last season, including Damian Lillard (11.5 PPG), who earned first-team all-conference honors as a freshman.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-3

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog:  8-3

Neutral site:   1-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Wildcats are 16-8 as underdogs the last two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Weber State was 13-4 ATS in conference.

 

MONTANA (17-12 SU, 12-11-1 ATS, 6-16 O/U): Anthony Johnson (17.6 PPG) can light it up from outside but the Grizzlies need help in the post if the team is to contend for the Big Sky title.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-4-1

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  5-7

Neutral Site:   0-0

Sportsbook Buster: The "under" was 12-5 in Grizzlies conference games.

Sports Betting Angle: Montana was 9-5-1 ATS in games played after a SU win.

 

PORTLAND STATE (23-10 SU, 12-17 ATS, 17-10-1 O/U): Coach Ken Bone has fled to Washington State but new head man Tyler Geving still has a team that can contend for a Big Sky crown.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-6

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  2-6

Away Underdog:  2-2

Neutral Site:   2-3

Sportsbook Buster: The "over" is 36-20-2 in Vikings games the last two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Portland State was 7-11 ATS in Big Sky Conference games.

 

HORIZON LEAGUE

BUTLER (26-6 SU, 17-13 ATS, 18-12 O/U): With all five starters returning from the team that won 26 games and captured the regular season Horizon League title a year ago, it's difficult to imagine the Bulldogs not having another banner season.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-8

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  4-4

Away Underdog:  5-0

Neutral Site:   0-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulldogs were 10-4 ATS on the road.

Sports Betting Angle: Butler was 5-1 as an underdog.

 

METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

SIENA (27-8 SU, 16-17 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The Saints have defeated Ohio State, Vanderbilt and Stanford in the past two seasons and with four returning starters are a solid favorite to capture another MAAC title.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-7

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  2-6

Away Underdog:  3-1

Neutral Site:   3-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Saints were 8-13 ATS in conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: The "over" was 9-2 in Siena road games.

 

NIAGARA (26-9 SU, 22-13 ATS, 13-20 O/U): The Purple Eagles return four starters to the team that made it to the championship game against Siena last year and should they get there again will have a puncher's chance to score the upset.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-6

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  7-4

Away Underdog:  2-2

Neutral Site:   4-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Purple Eagles were 19-11 as favorites

Sports Betting Angle: Niagara was 16-6 ATS in two or more days rest.

 

 

 

 


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