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Betting the Big 12

October 21, 2009

The Big 12 Conference has the best pointspread record over the past seven seasons, a trend that college basketball betting fans will be watching this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2008/09 season are in parentheses:

 

KANSAS (27-8 SU, 20-9-1 ATS, 13-17 O/U): All the pieces are there for a second NCAA crown in the last three years.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite: 10-2-1

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  3-2

Away Underdog:  3-2

Neutral site:   3-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Jayhawks are 21-7-2 ATS at home the past two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Kansas was 5-0 ATS after a SU loss last year.

 

TEXAS (23-12 SU, 13-18-1 ATS, 15-16-1 O/U): A strong recruiting class and talented holdovers provide the talented needed for a title run.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-7

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  1-4

Away Underdog:  1-3

Neutral Site:   5-4-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Longhorns were 5-13-1 ATS in conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: Texas was 6-14-1 ATS in games after a SU win.

 

OKLAHOMA (30-6 SU, 17-14 ATS, 18-13 O/U): Player of the Year Blake Griffin (22.7 PPG, 14.4 RPG) is gone so the Sooners will look to frosh Keith “Tiny” Gallon (6-9, 300).

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  5-7

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  5-2

Away Underdog:  1-2

Neutral Site:   6-3

Sportsbook Buster: The “over” was 11-1 when the Sooners were home favorites.

Sports Betting Angle: Oklahoma was 5-2 as a road favorite.

 

TEXAS A&M (24-10 SU, 15-11-1 ATS, 15-12 O/U): Highly regarded recruit Naji Hibbert needs to step up if Aggies are to go dancing this season.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-4-1

Home Underdog:  3-1

Away Favorite:  2-1

Away Underdog:  5-2

Neutral Site:   3-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Aggies are 10-3 ATS on neutral courts the last two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Texas A&M was 6-2-1 ATS after a SU loss.

 

OKLAHOMA STATE (23-12 SU, 16-12-1 ATS, 14-15 O/U): James Anderson (18.2 PPG), the conference's best pure shooter, will keep the Cowboys in post-season contention.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-3

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  2-5

Neutral Site:   5-3-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Cowboys are 17-6-1 as a favorite the past two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: OSU was 11-7-1 ATS after a SU victory.

 

KANSAS STATE (22-12 SU, 9-15-2 ATS, 12-14 O/U): Four starters return but the key to a tournament bid could be McDonald's All-America Wally Judge.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  3-6

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog:  3-5

Neutral Site:   1-1-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Wildcats were 6-10-1 ATS in Big 12 play.

Sports Betting Angle: KSU was 1-0 ATS in games after a SU loss.

 

MISSOURI (31-7 SU, 20-11 ATS, 16-15 O/U): The Tigers lose three starters who accounted for over 40 points and 15 rebounds a game so some decline is anticipated.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-3

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  2-4

Away Underdog:  2-1

Neutral Site:   8-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Tigers were 13-6 ATS in conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: Missouri was 16-8 as a favorite.

 

BAYLOR (24-15 SU, 13-18 ATS, 12-19 O/U): The Bears were underachievers last season and a loss of talent figures to make things even worse this year.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  3-7

Home Underdog:  0-1

Away Favorite:  0-3

Away Underdog: 4-4

Neutral Site:   6-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Bears are 3-13 as home favorites the past two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Baylor was 6-14 ATS in conference games.

 

IOWA STATE (15-17 SU, 9-17-1 ATS, 14-13 O/U): Even Craig Brackins (20.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG) can't be expected to do it alone for the Cyclones.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  4-4

Home Underdog:  2-4

Away Favorite:  0-1

Away Underdog:  3-6-1

Neutral Site:   0-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Cyclones were 4-12-1 ATS in conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 11-6 when Iowa State was an underdog.

 

NEBRASKA (18-13 SU, 11-13 ATS, 8-16 O/U): The Cornhuskers' inability to score (they ranked 11th in the conference last year) could lead to a losing record.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  3-4

Home Underdog: 2-1

Away Favorite: 1-3

Away Underdog: 3-4

Neutral Site:   0-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Cornhuskers were 5-10 ATS on three or more days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 12-5 in Nebraska conference games.

 

COLORADO (9-22 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 10-17 O/U): Cory Higgins (17.4 PPG) is a top guard but the Buffaloes lack size and presence in the paint.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-3

Home Underdog:  4-3

Away Favorite:  0-0

Away Underdog:  5-4-1

Neutral Site:   2-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Buffaloes were 11-6 ATS in conference play.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” is 35-20 over the past two years.

 

TEXAS TECH (14-19 SU, 10-15-1 ATS, 17-9 O/U): The Red Raiders have experience but those players haven't proven they can win consistently in the rugged Big 12.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  1-4

Home Underdog:  2-4

Away Favorite:  0-0

Away Underdog:  5-4-1

Neutral Site:   2-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Red Raiders were 3-9 ATS at home.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 11-7 in Texas Tech conference games.

 

 

This is the first of 11 NCAA basketball betting previews.

Next: Handicapping the Atlantic Coast Conference.

 

 

 

 


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