Proving that MLB betting is a difficult pursuit for even the most studious
sports bettor, the Nationals, who finished a distant fourth in the NL East,
were a lot more reliable a bet that the heralded Mets, who were in the division
hunt until the final weekend of the season, last year.
In fact, Washington wound up with a positive +10.7 percent ROI (Return on
Investment) for their 72 games within the division, meaning that if a player
bet on the Nats in every one of those contests, he would have reaped a nice
double-digit profit for the season.
On the other spike, while the Mets were a whopping 15 games better than the
Nationals in the won/lost column, their ROI for NL East games was a paltry
-18.4 percent, helping to explain why baseball betting, with its money line, is
a far different challenge than the pointspread contest associated with football
and basketball.
Let's see if we can't use last year's betting numbers to uncover some wagering
angles for the upcoming season:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (2007 Finish: 89-76, Won NL East)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 22/1,
Pennant: 9/1,
Division: 3/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 63-40,
Underdog: 26-36
Home: 47-36,
Away: 42-40
Day: 27-26, Night: 62-50
Vs. Left: 26-28,
Vs. Right: 63-48
One-Run Games: 14-24
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Phillies had an ROI of +16 percent
against teams from the National League Central Division last year, meaning that
a bet on each of those 41 games would have resulted in a strong double-digit
addition to your bankroll.
Sports Betting Angle: With an ROI of +9.4 percent versus the NL East,
Philadelphia was rock-solid within its own division last season.
NEW YORK METS (2007 Finish: 88-74)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 9/2,
Pennant: 2/1,
Division: 4/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 68-57,
Underdog: 20-17
Home: 41-40,
Away: 47-34
Day: 29-22,
Night: 59-52
Vs. Left: 31-32,
Vs. Right: 61-50
One-Run Games: 22-15
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Mets were a better team on the road,
posting an ROI of +11.4 percent for away games.
Sports Betting Angle: New York posted an ROI of +20.1 percent in the 37
games it was an underdog last year.
ATLANTA BRAVES (2007 Finish: 84-78)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 30/1,
Pennant: 12/1,
Division: 9/2
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 59-43,
Underdog: 25-35
Home: 44-37,
Away: 40-41
Day: 24-20,
Night: 60-58
Vs. Left: 31-32,
Vs. Right: 53-46
One-Run Games: 18-25
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Braves had an ROI of +12.3 percent as
a favorite of -200 (bet $200 to win $100) or more, last season.
Sports Betting Angle: Even including those games where Atlanta was -200
or more, the Braves overall ROI as a favorite was -8.3 percent last year.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (2007 Finish: 73-89)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 100/1,
Pennant: 50/1,
Division: 40/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 8-6,
Underdog: 65-83
Home: 40-41,
Away: 33-48
Day: 24-21,
Night: 49-68
Vs. Left: 24-24,
Vs. Right: 49-65
One-Run Games: 27-24
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Nationals feasted on left-handed
pitching last year, posting an ROI of +22.5 percent.
Sports Betting Angle: Washington was a great bet overall, notching an
ROI of +9.3 percent for its entire 162-game schedule.
FLORIDA MARLINS (2007 Finish: 71-91)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 150/1,
Pennant: 65/1,
Division: 50/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 28-33,
Underdog: 43-58
Home: 36-45,
Away: 35-46
Day: 19-23,
Night: 52-68
Vs. Left: 21-28,
Vs. Right: 50-63
One-Run Games: 22-24
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: In seven games where they were an
underdog of +200 (bet $100 to win $200) or more last season, the Marlins had an
ROI of +82.1 percent.
Sports Betting Angle: Florida's ROI in home games last year was a -13.1
percent.
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