There's no doubt that the Red Sox and Yankees are the
bullies of the American League East but baseball betting aficionados understand
that straight up achievement doesn't always translate to wagering success,
arguing for a more sophisticated analysis of the upcoming Major League Baseball
campaign.
Last year, for example, it was the lowly Orioles (see team wagering profile)
who were the best bets within the division. Oddly enough, of 24 betting
categories surveyed that was only one of only two categories (the other being
2-3 run games) where Baltimore posted a positive ROI (Return on Investment) for
sports bettors.
There also was gold to be mined with the also-ran Blue Jays and Rays…especially
if you knew where to look. Toronto was a superior bet behind top starter Roy
Halladay, earning a 6.3 percent profit for those who invested in each of the
ace's outings. The Rays may have won only 13 games last year but backing
starting hurler Scott Kazmir earned you a profit of 4.85 percent.
Let's see if we can't find some clues for the upcoming season in last year's
baseball betting numbers:
BOSTON RED SOX (2007 Finish: 107-69, Won World Series)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 4/1,
Pennant: 9/4,
Division:
4/5
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 92-48,
Underdog: 15-21
Home: 58-31,
Away: 49-38
Day: 32-15,
Night: 75-54
Vs. Left: 28-23,
Vs. Right: 79-46
One-Run Games: 24-28
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Red Sox had an ROI of -8.7
percent when they were favorites of -200 (bet $200 to win $100) or more last
season, meaning that even though Boston was 16-9 in that category, a bet on
each of those 25 games would have resulted in a loss of 8.7 percent of your
bankroll.
Sports Betting Angle: Boston had an ROI of +15.6 percent in
day games last year.
NEW YORK YANKEES (2007 Finish: 97-65, Wild Card)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 6/1,
Pennant: 3/1,
Division:
5/4
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 90-61,
Underdog: 5-10
Home: 53-30,
Away: 42-41
Day: 29-27,
Night: 66-44
Vs. Left: 20-20,
Vs. Right: 75-51
One-Run Games: 18-22
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Yankees had an ROI of -28
percent as an underdog last year.
Sports Betting Angle: New York had an ROI of +14.6 percent
versus teams from the AL Central last season.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (2007 Finish: 83-79)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 35/1,
Pennant: 16/1,
Division:
6/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 50-39,
Underdog: 33-40
Home: 49-31,
Away: 34-47
Day: 28-25,
Night: 55-54
Vs. Left: 26-17,
Vs. Right: 57-62
One-Run Games: 29-25
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: The Blue Jays had an ROI of
+15.9 percent when facing left-handed starters last season.
Sports Betting Angle: Toronto had an ROI of -10.9 percent in
road games last year.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (2007 Finish: 69-93)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 150/1,
Pennant: 100/1,
Division:
70/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 30-25,
Underdog: 39-68
Home: 35-46,
Away: 34-47
Day: 15-26,
Night: 54-67
Vs. Left: 19-27,
Vs. Right: 50-66
One-Run Games: 13-31
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: Surprisingly, the Orioles had
an ROI of +5.2 percent in games within the American League East Division last
season.
Sports Betting Angle: Baltimore had a dismal ROI of -24.9
percent in day games last year.
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS (2007 Finish: 66-96)
Future Book Odds for 2008:
World Series: 100/1,
Pennant: 40/1,
Division:
25/1
By the Numbers:
Favorite: 23-18,
Underdog: 43-78
Home: 37-44,
Away: 29-52
Day: 22-24,
Night: 44-72
Vs. Left: 21-25,
Vs. Right: 45-71
One-Run Games: 22-21
Sportsbook MLB Betting Buster: Last year, the Rays had an ROI
of +20.3 percent as underdogs of +200 (bet $100 to win $200) or more.
Sports Betting Angle: It was like night and day as Tampa Bay
had an ROI of +12.3 percent in day games but -16.3 percent in night games, last
year.
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MLB Betting: Inside The AL Central
MLB Betting: Inside The AL West
