NCAA hoops, which are pushing the NFL for the most popular wagering sport among North American gamblers, won't tip off until November but college basketball betting fans can get an early start on the action right now.
Most sportsbooks already have a future book out on which team will cut down the nets at Ford Field in Detroit to win the 2008/09 NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, April 6.
Historically, in an effort to protect themselves from a big payout, sportsbooks pack their future books with excessive vigorish. But, given the options a savvy future book bet affords the player, even sophisticated gamblers, those finely attuned to the mathematical advantages of the house, find value in future book wagering.
In the case of securing a ducat on the Big Dance, the bettor's choice need not win the 65-team tournament for him to make money. For example, let's say the bettor buys a future book ticket on Louisville at odds of 12/1. The bet may have value on its own but if the Cardinals make it as far as the Final Four it can be a winner, too. In that scenario, the gambler then can hedge by betting Louisville's opponent on the money line and the other two teams in a reconstructed future book.
Typically, given the treacherous one-and-done aspect of the single elimination tournament, college basketball future books open with a weak favorite, usually in the 6/1, 7/1 or 8/1 range.
Not this year.
North Carolina is an overwhelming 3/1 favorite to win it all next April. The Tar Heels return every significant player from last season's Final Four team, including All-America Tyler Hansbrough (22.6 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and the backcourt duo of pointguard Ty Lawson, who led the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio, and sweet-stroking Wayne Ellington (16.6 PPG).
Tennessee, Louisville, UConn, Duke, UCLA, Florida, Memphis and Texas are among the teams that will be ready to pounce should the Tar Heels ruffle their feathers. All can be found in the 10/1 to 20/1 range, depending on your abilities as a smart shopper.
Tennessee lost a bunch of talent but Coach Bruce Pearl's “Controlled Chaos” trap and press game relies more on athletes than experience and Pearl has plenty of the former to not only make the Vols the favorite in the SEC but a national contender.
Louisville will be tested in the rugged Big East but the Cardinals have a good inside/outside mix of players and the No. 2 recruit in the nation in freshman Samardo Samuels.
Led by 7'3” Hasheem Thabeet and three other returning double-digit scorers from a season ago, Connecticut‘s aspirations go beyond a Big East title to the national stage.
The return of four starters from last season's 28-6 team should help propel Duke back into the national spotlight…even in Tobacco Road neighbor UNC is unwilling to share the strobes.
UCLA waved goodbye to two players chosen in the top five in the NBA draft but the Pac-10 is weaker this year so the team should have enough time to jell under defensive-minded Coach Ben Howland, making a fourth consecutive Final Four appearance a possibility.
After back-to-back national titles, Florida failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament last season but this year should be different. The Gators are led by Nick Calathes, who averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists as a freshman last year and could be the best pointguard in the nation.
National runner-up Memphis and regional runner-up Texas look like the class of their respective leagues, Conference USA and the Big 12, and either or both could make a run for the big prize if the pieces of the puzzle come together.
Among the other teams that could make a run-—and at better prices too—are Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Purdue, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Miami, Arizona State, Marquette, Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Baylor.
For the most part, the dozen teams listed above are in the 20/1 to 60/1 range, making them attractive second tier possibilities.
Single game college basketball betting will tip off in late November but gamblers can start to apply some full court pressure to bookmakers now.
