As regular readers (thanks, Mom) will recall, this is the time of the season when we pit art against science in an annual college football betting ritual matching the Nevada oddsmaking community against a man and his computer models.
The Nevada price-making brethren are represented by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that dispenses opening odds to a majority of licensed sports books in Nevada. The man is Jeff Sagarin, a Seattle-based scientist whose computer rankings appear in USA Today, and also are a part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) formula.
LVSC wears the “art” tag because its oddsmakers consider non-scientific factors such as motivation and team matchups before issuing their pointspreads. Sagarin represents the “science” side of this experiment because his numbers—-if one takes them as pure fact—-are devoid of other interpretive considerations.
For the sake of argument (and because it’s always more fun to try to beat the spread) we’ll side with science and recommend those bowl games where Sagarin’s numbers deviate most from the Las Vegas opening line:
Friday, Dec. 26
MOTOR CITY BOWL, Detroit
Florida Atlantic (+7) vs. Central Michigan: FAU has a Sagarin Rating of 60.74 while CMU checks in at 68.92, a difference of 8.18 points so it would appear the line is not off by much. But Central Michigan only has to travel 147 miles from its campus at Mt. Pleasant to Detroit while Florida Atlantic, essentially, will be playing a road game. So give CMU an extra three points for a home game. The Play: Central Michigan (-7).
Saturday, Dec. 27
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, Orlando
Wisconsin (+3) vs. Florida State: Not only does the Sagarin Rating for FSU (82.59) exceed the Wisconsin (74.18) Sagarin Rating by more eight points but Florida State also gets to play in its home state, about a 4-5 hour drive from campus. The Play: Florida State (-3).
Monday, Dec. 29
ALAMA BOWL, San Antonio
Northwestern (+10 1/2) vs. Missouri: Northwestern (76.83) trails Missouri (83.12) by just 6.29 points in the Sagarin Ratings but you get 10 1/2 points with the Wildcats, a swing of more than four points. The Play: Northwestern (+10 1/2).
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL, Atlanta
LSU (+3 1/2) vs. Georgia Tech: This is a home game for Georgia Tech (82.04) so when you add three points to the Yellow Jackets’ total, they are nearly 10 points superior to LSU (75.26). The Play: Georgia Tech (-3 1/2).
Thursday, Jan. 01
CAPITAL ONE BOWL, Atlanta
Michigan State (+8 1/2) vs. Georgia: MSU (79.77) is less than a field goal behind Georgia (82.13) in the Sagarin Ratings and don’t expect the pro Georgia Tech crowd in Atlanta to be hospitable to the Bulldogs. The Play: Michigan State (+8 1/2).
ROSE BOWL, Pasadena
Penn State (+10) vs. Southern Cal: Even if you want to award three points to the Trojans for playing in LA, USC (90.64) isn’t that much better than Penn State (89.12) in the Sagarin Ratings. The Play: Penn State (+10).
Friday, Jan. 02
COTTON BOWL, Dallas
Mississippi (+4) vs. Texas Tech: Even without a home state advantage, Sagarin says Tech (90.79) is more than 10 points better than Ole Miss (80.75) in this matchup. The Play: Texas Tech (-4).
LIBERTY BOWL, Memphis
East Carolina (+2 1/2) vs. Kentucky: According to Sagarin, it should be ECU (73.63) that’s giving points to Kentucky (70.78), not the other way around. The Play: East Carolina (+2 1/2).
SUGAR BOWL, New Orleans
Utah (+11) vs. Alabama: Sagarin Ratings place Utah (87.16) a little more than a point behind Alabama (88.39) in the raw number race. Given the huge line, this move seems obvious. The Play: Utah (+11).
