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There's a school of thought that prescribes to the notion that it's the proficient bettors, more than the astute handicappers, who wind up with the cash at the end of a sports betting transaction. While it surely helps to have expertise in both areas, some also believe that success at the windows is even more dependent on having a working knowledge of mathematics.
On that count, you won't get any arguments from Mike Orkin, a professor of statistics at California State University at Hayward and the author of two books on the role probability and chance play in gambling, "Can You Win?" and "What Are the Odds?"
"You really can't win at gambling unless you understand math," contends Orkin, who once taught an accredited course at Hayward on sports betting, horse racing and casino gambling. "You don't have to have a Ph.D. but you do have to have a mathematical mind."
Orkin explained that the marriage of mathematics and gambling goes back decades.
"Winning blackjack systems that became so popular in the early 1960s were developed by mathematicians using computer simulations to find winning strategies," he pointed out. "There's no way to develop a strategy for a complex game such as blackjack and learn whether the player has an edge without knowing some mathematics.
"On the flip side, you have to know math to prove that, unless there's some flaw in the machinery, you can't win at games like craps or roulette.
"Another example is poker," said Orkin. "Whether it's video or, more interestingly, regular poker, the really good players can rattle off odds. They have to know math in order to help them decide what to do in certain situations.
"In sports betting, the people who are doing well with a systematic method process statistical information in a sensible way, which means knowing some mathematics," said Orkin. "You have to understand odds to be able to compute your chances of winning and compare them with the actual payoff odds. You really have to be able to do that if you hope to have any expectation of winning."
Just understanding the true odds of a parlay might affect how you bet. For example, the true odds of a two-team parlay are 3/1. That's computed by multiplying the chances of winning the first game, one-in-two (1/2) times the chances of winning the second game, one-in-two (1/2). So 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/4, or one-in-four, which is 3/1:
| Parlay Bets |
| # of Teams |
Payoff Odds |
Actual Odds |
House Edge |
| 2 |
13/5 |
3/1 |
10.0% |
| 3 |
6/1 |
7/1 |
12.5% |
| 4 |
10/1 |
15/1 |
31.3% |
| 5 |
20/1 |
31/1 |
34.4% |
Payoff odds are less than actual odds because all books add "juice," "vigorish," or "vig." That's just the price of doing business. But as the above table illustrates, the more teams the bettor plays, the greater the house advantage. A basic knowledge of mathematics, then, would lead the sports bettor to play smaller parlays, if he plays them at all.
Orkin's knowledge of numbers, odds and probability has led him into some unusual areas. In 1978, Orkin helped the defense prepare an appeal for Juan Corona, a Mexican-American man convicted of hacking to death 25 migrant farm workers in California. Orkin utilized computer-derived statistical data to demonstrate that while the county in which Corona was tried had a 17 percent Mexican-American population, the grand jury that returned Corona's indictment was void of that ethnic representation. What's more, a statistical survey conducted by Orkin convinced a judge that attitudes in the community were fixed against Corona. A change of venue and a new trial were ordered. By the way, Corona was convicted a second time.
Even stranger than the Corona case was the one involving Jim and Artie Mitchell, the notorious San Francisco pornographers who produced the seminal adult film, "Behind the Green Door," starring Ivory Snow box cover model Marilyn Chambers.
The Mitchell Brothers, who also owned the adult emporium, the O'Farrell Theater, were charged with various counts of indecency relating to live performances at their property. Specifically, it was alleged that lap dancers had inappropriately touched customers during their performances.
Using the casework files accumulated by the San Francisco Police Department's undercover officers, Orkin was able to demonstrate that transgressions outside the limits of the law were rare and random and certainly not a pattern that was encouraged by the theater owners. The case was dropped.
So, as Orkin points out, whether you're charged with a series of murders, run a sex emporium, or are just trying to cash a bet, knowledge of mathematics is essential if you want to improve your chances of success at sports betting.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com.
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