Second only to the Super Bowl in wagering popularity, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, which is set to tip-off March 15, offers a unique set of challenges for bettors who get involved in "March Madness."
In fact, there are seven key handicapping and betting factors that distinguish the "Big Dance" from the collegiate hardwood regular season:
The Odd Couples: Oddsmakers usually employ Power Ratings, a numerical assessment that helps them establish a working pointspread. But what happens when a team, because it never or rarely is on the board during the regular season, doesn't have a Power Rating? In those cases, price makers often are flying in the dark.
That could explain how Montana, Northwestern State, Bucknell, Southern University, Winthrop, George Mason, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Murray State, Monmouth, Albany and Pennsylvania all beat the spread in last year's opening round.
The point is, when it comes to a matchup of a traditional power against a second or third tier team that probably hasn't been on the board all year, there's margin for a price making error. Players who recognize those mistakes can place a wager with a high likelihood of success.
Out of Site: Theoretically, all March Madness Tournament games are played at neutral sites. But would Illinois have beaten Arizona and made it to the title game in 2005 if the Illini were not so fortunate as to get to play their regional final game in the Allstate Arena in Chicago? Illinois prevailed 90-89 in overtime, a result that easily could have gone the other way had the game been contested on a more neutral court. Check those brackets! While not technically playing at home, some teams will enjoy regional advantages that could spell the difference in a tight game.
In Guard We Trust: Because elimination hovers above the necks of players like a guillotine, pressure - both physical and psychological - plays an enormous role in the Tournament, making it almost impossible to succeed without a composed and experienced player at pointguard.
Three-mendous: It's often an all-or-nothing strategy but teams that live by the three-point shot not only sometimes die by it but sometimes wipe out huge deficits (or build big leads) and score the upset. A team that can shoot the trey always is dangerous, especially against a weak foul-shooting team that is trying to manage a lead.
Whistle blowers: You're not only going to have the best teams in the NCAA March Madness Tournament but the best referees, as well. So don't expect these officials to swallow their whistles in the waning minutes of the game. If a foul occurs, expect it to be called. Given that, if you wager on a team that shoots less than 75 percent from the free throw line, you do so at your own peril.
Tempo: "Pace makes race," goes the saying on the racetrack but it's even truer during March Madness, where a gap in talent makes those style differences more important. Some teams like to run; others prefer a deliberate style of play. Some teams shoot a lot of treys while others feed the post, attack the rim and pick up points on the foul line. The team that wins the battle of tempo often is likely to also win the game. Determining which team will dictate the pace can help a bettor decide which team to bet.
Time: The old adage that sportsbooks only have to be wrong once for bettors to take advantage of them was never truer than during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Once the Selection Committee announces the March Madness Tournament's pairings and brackets, oddsmakers and sportsbooks only have about three hours to dispense 32 pointspreads and an equal number of totals to a sports betting public that is eager to attack those numbers.
Given the time pressure and the inherent complexity involved in setting spreads for a number of obscure teams, sometimes errors can occur. The advantage for the player is that while sportsbooks must post prices on every game, the gambler gets to pick his spots, choosing only the most advantageous matchups.
Pay attention to these seven factors and you should be more successful betting the NCAA Basketball March Madness Tournament.
This article was written by Luken Karel for
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