Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books. These so-called technical handicappers use trends, or prior team tendencies, to try to predict future results. Let's see if we can't sift through all the data to find the very best plays for a TV-laden Thanksgiving weekend:
THURSDAY, NOV. 22
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Fox): These teams have met 20 times in the last 10 years with the Lions holding a narrow 10-9-1 pointspread edge. The "under" is 6-2 in the last eight encounters.
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (CBS): There's not much history between these clubs but the Jets are just 12-18 as road underdogs the last four seasons.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (NFL): The Colts have covered the last three meetings in this mismatched series.
FRIDAY, NOV. 23
Central Michigan at Akron: Central Michigan has covered four of the last games in this series. What's more, Akron is 0-6 ATS the week after playing rival Miami (O.).
SATURDAY, NOV. 24
Clemson at South Carolina: These two schools have played every year since 1909 but it's been a very one-sided rivalry of late with Clemson covering five of the last six games and eight of the last nine contests in Columbia. South Carolina, +5, covered last year, 31-28.
Alabama at Auburn: The road team has covered nine of the last 12 meetings in this Iron Bowl matchup. Alabama certainly has helped that trend, covering five of its last six visits to Auburn. Alabama also has beaten the spread 11 of the last 17 games between these state rivals. Interestingly, these teams have never had losing records in the same season.
Washington State at Washington: Washington has covered six of the last seven Apple Cups, including a 35-32 thriller in Pullman last year when the Huskies were 8 1/2-point underdogs. The average SU margin in the last five games of this 100-year-old rivalry is just 4.1 points so you probably wouldn't want to be laying a big number.
Also: USC (6-3 ATS) over Arizona State, Thursday; Colorado (7-3 ATS) over Nebraska, Mississippi (6-3-1 ATS) over Mississippi State; LSU (4-1 ATS) over Arkansas; Toledo (3-0 ATS) over Bowling Green, Friday; Boston College (4-1 ATS Home) over Miami; Oregon (7-1 Away) over UCLA; West Virginia (3-0 ATS) over Connecticut; Virginia Tech (3-1-1 ATS) over Virginia; Florida State (6-3 ATS) over Florida; Georgia (4-0 ATS Away) over Georgia Tech; North Carolina (7-3 ATS) over Duke; Tennessee (4-1 ATS Away) over Kentucky; Tulane (4-1 ATS Away) over East Carolina; Buffalo (4-1 ATS) over Kent State; Miami, Ohio (3-1 ATS) over Ohio; Utah (6-1 ATS Away) over BYU; Nevada (5-0 ATS) over San Jose State, Saturday.
SUNDAY, NOV. 25
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Fox): The Cardinals have covered four of the last five games in this NFC West rivalry, including the season-opener in San Francisco.
Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (CBS): The Ravens have covered three straight games in this series, including last season's 16-13 victory in Baltimore, one of only two regular season defeats suffered by the Chargers. But San Diego has covered three of the last four get-togethers in "America's Finest City."
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (NBC): It takes courage to bet against the proficient Pats but the Eagles have covered six of the last seven meetings with New England.
Also: Buffalo Bills (4-1 ATS) over Jacksonville Jaguars; New Orleans Saints (5-0 ATS Away) over Carolina Panthers; Chicago Bears (6-1-1 ATS) over Denver Broncos; Tennessee Titans (4-1 ATS Away) over Cincinnati Bengals; Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 ATS) over Oakland Raiders.
MONDAY, NOV. 26
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (ESPN): The Dolphins are 24-28-2 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 1-8-2 as a road underdog. The Steelers are 21-16 ATS on MNF, including 10-4 as a home favorite. All trends point to Pittsburgh.
Are the above sportsbook busters guaranteed? Of course not. But historians point out that by studying the past we're better equipped to predict the future. That may be true for sports betting, too.
