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November 9, 2007
Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books. These so-called technical handicappers use trends, or prior team tendencies, to try to predict future results. Let's see if we can't sift through all the data to find the very best plays for this weekend:
TUESDAY, NOV. 13
Toledo at Ball State: Ball State has covered the last three games of this series that have been played in Muncie, Indiana and is 6-1 ATS in its next-to-last game of the year, the past seven seasons.
THURSDAY, NOV. 15
Oregon at Arizona: Not only has Oregon covered four of its last five trips to Tucson and is 11-5 ATS versus Arizona since 1989, but Arizona also is 1-12 ATS in its last home game of the season, the previous 13 years.
FRIDAY, NOV. 16
Hawaii at Nevada: The home team has covered six of the last seven meetings in this Western Athletic Conference rivalry.
SATURDAY, NOV. 17
Kentucky at Georgia: Since 1978, Kentucky has been the underdog 29 straight times (3-26 SU) versus Georgia and the Bulldogs also have dominated the pointspread series, covering four of the last five. What's more, Georgia is 7-1 ATS after Auburn while Kentucky is 2-9 ATS the week after playing Vanderbilt.
Miami at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech has covered five of the last meetings between these teams. Also of interest, Miami is 0-4 ATS the week before playing Boston College.
Oregon State at Washington State: Oregon State has covered six of the last seven meetings with Washington State, including three in a row in Pullman. The favorite in this series in 12-3 ATS since 1989.
Also: Miami, Ohio (4-1 ATS) over Akron, Wednesday; Kansas State (5-1 ATS at Home) over Missouri; Ohio State (6-3 ATS) over Michigan; Boston College (4-0 ATS) over Clemson; Florida State (6-1 ATS at Home) over Maryland; North Carolina (3-0 ATS) over Georgia Tech; Penn State (5-2 ATS) over Michigan State; Wake Forest (5-0 ATS, 4-0 ATS Away) over NC State; Rutgers (4-1 ATS) over Pittsburgh; Mississippi (5-1 ATS) over LSU; Wisconsin (5-0 ATS) over Minnesota; Oklahoma State (6-2 ATS) over Baylor; Northwestern (6-1 ATS) over Illinois; Oklahoma (5-1 ATS, 3-0 ATS Away) over Texas A&M; San Diego State (4-1 ATS) over Air Force; BYU (3-0 ATS) over Wyoming; California (5-1 ATS Away) over Washington; New Mexico (4-1 ATS) over Utah.
SUNDAY, NOV. 18
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots are 17-3 ATS the second time they face the Bills in a season and have covered three in a row in Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: This has been one0sided with the Colts covering eight of the last nine meetings, including three straight games in Indianapolis.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: The Steelers have dominated, covering 11 of the last 13 games with the Jets and have a 7-1 record ATS in New York.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Niners have covered the last six encounters between these teams and also are 5-1 ATS in the last six games that have been played in the Bay Area.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (NBC): The Bears have covered four of the last five meetings in this series that undoubtedly would have more wagering appeal if these teams had gotten off to better starts.
Also: Atlanta Falcons (3-0 ATS) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-12 ATS after rest); Dallas Cowboys (4-1 ATS at Home) over Washington Redskins; Philadelphia Eagles (3-0 ATS) over Miami Dolphins; Oakland Raiders (4-1 ATS) over Minnesota Vikings;
MONDAY, NOV. 19
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (ESPN): The Broncos have covered three of the last four meetings played at Mile High Stadium but are only 16-26-1 ATS, including 7-13-1 as a home favorite, on Monday Night Football. The Titans are 9-12-1 ATS on MNF, 2-5 as a road underdog.
Are the above sportsbook busters guaranteed? Of course not. But historians point out that by studying the past we're better equipped to predict the future. That may be true for sports betting, too.
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