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August 2007
This is the eighth of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
For the second year in a row, there could be another undefeated BCS bound team from the WAC, only this season it's more likely to be Hawaii than Boise State. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
HAWAII (10-3 SU, 8-4 ATS): Fourteen starters return to the team that lost just once (at Boise State) in the WAC last year, including QB Colt Brennan, who threw for a remarkable 58 TDs last season. And Hawaii gets Boise State at home this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 52-35
ATS: 45-37
HF: 20-14
HD: 10-6
AF: 6-7
AD: 9-10
Bets and Pieces: Given the arduous travel associated with coming to the Islands, it's not surprising that Hawaii has been a solid college football betting play (30-20) ATS at home the last seven seasons.
BOISE STATE (12-0 SU, 6-5 ATS): The Broncos only have 11 starters back from last year's undefeated outfit and lose a three-year starter at quarterback. Depth will allow them to beat just about everyone but the season finale at Hawaii, Nov. 23, will be a challenge.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 72-11
ATS: 48-28-2
HF: 26-10
HD: 0-1
AF: 17-14
AD: 5-3-2
Bets and Pieces: Boise State has been a pointspread terror on its blue Smurf field, posting a 26-10 mark ATS since 2000.
SAN JOSE STATE (8-4 SU, 8-3 ATS): The Spartans return 15 starters, including their top five rushers and leading passer and the defense is stout, as well. Looks like another good year in San Jose.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 32-50
ATS: 42-34-1
HF: 8-4-1
HD: 10-7
AF: 8-1
AD: 16-22
Bets and Pieces: San Jose State has lost just once in the last seven years as a road underdog.
NEW MEXICO STATE (4-8 SU, 7-3 ATS): The Aggies return 17 starters and should be among the most improved teams in the nation this season. Cutting down on turnovers and staying healthy will be key.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 27-55
ATS: 35-44
HF: 5-11
HD: 12-6
AF: 4-7
AD: 14-20
Bets and Pieces: New Mexico State has excelled in the role of a home college football betting underdog (12-6) the last seven seasons.
FRESNO STATE (4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS): After posting a 50-23 SU record from 2000-2005, Pat Hill's team slumped to 4-8 last year. Only 11 starters are back but there's plenty of depth and a turnaround seems imminent.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 54-31
ATS: 38-42-2
HF: 13-16-2
HD: 3-3
AF: 9-12
AD: 13-11
Bets and Pieces: Fresno State is 1-5 ATS the last six meetings with Boise State.
NEVADA (8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS): The Wolf Pack will have to overcome a schedule that has them on the road at Boise State, New Mexico State and San Jose State if they want to finish in the top half of the WAC. With only 12 returning starters, don't count on that happening.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 37-46
ATS: 44-35-1
HF: 13-4
HD: 12-9
AF: 9-4
AD: 10-18-1
Bets and Pieces: Nevada has been fabulous as a home favorite the last seven seasons, posting a 13-4 record ATS in Reno.
IDAHO (4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS): In Rob Akey, the Vandals get their third new head coach in four seasons, never a good scenario for improvement. Idaho should beat Utah State and Louisiana Tech at home but finding other WAC wins will be difficult.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 20-61
ATS: 31-42-1
HF: 2-5
HD: 10-8
AF: 2-7
AD: 16-22-1
Bets and Pieces: Idaho is a poor risk as a favorite, notching just a 4-11 record in that category the last seven years.
UTAH STATE (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS): The Aggies lose a league fewest 11 lettermen but when you were outscored by an average of more than 24 points per game last year, playing the same personnel isn't necessarily an asset.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 23-56
ATS: 29-45
HF: 5-4
HD: 9-11
AF: 2-5
AD: 13-25
Bets and Pieces: Utah State has been one of the worst pointspread teams in the nation since 2000, especially in the role as a road underdog (13-25).
LOUISIANA TECH (3-10 SU, 3-9 ATS): With 10 starters back on defense, the Bulldogs defense, which was the worst in the WAC last year, should be improved. But they're on the road versus Idaho and Utah State, the teams they have to beat to avoid the basement.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 35-48
ATS: 32-47-1
HF: 12-8
HD: 5-5
AF: 4-11
AD: 11-23-1
Bets and Pieces: The further you get from Ruston, La., the worse Louisiana Tech is, recording just a 15-34-1 mark ATS on the road since 2000.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on Conference USA
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