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July 2007
This is the seventh of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
The MWC is a league with three strong teams and six weak ones with BYU, TCU and Utah clearly in position to dominate. The Cougars get the nod because they get to play both the Horned Frogs and Utes at home this year. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
BYU (10-2 SU, 9-2-1 ATS): The Cougars were so dominant (8-0) in the conference last season that even the loss of All-America QB John Beck probably won't slow them down. Both the offense and defense are top notch outfits.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 48-35
ATS: 41-40-1
HF: 18-16
HD: 3-4
AF: 7-11
AD: 13-8-1
Bets and Pieces: The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the BYU-Utah "Holy War," the last 14 meetings.
TCU (10-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS): With nine starters back on defense, the Horned Frogs should yield the fewest points in the MWC this season. The offense is more than adequate and special teams are good but can they win in Provo?
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 61-18
ATS: 40-35-2
HF: 19-13
HD: 4-1
AF: 9-13-2
AD: 8-8
Bets and Pieces: TCU boasts a strong 23-14 record ATS at home in college football betting the last seven seasons.
UTAH (7-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS): The Utes return 16 starters and lose the fewest lettermen in the league from the team that beat TCU and led BYU in the fourth quarter last year. The offense should be the best in the MWC.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 42-29
ATS: 42-34-1
HF: 17-18-1
HD: 3-0
AF: 13-13
AD: 9-3
Bets and Pieces: With a pointspread record of 12-3, Utah has been deadly in the role of an underdog the past seven seasons.
COLORADO STATE (4-8 SU, 4-7 ATS): The Rams have the most returning starters, 18, and experience at quarterback, two factors which should lead to a winning record this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 48-35
ATS: 36-41
HF: 12-18
HD: 2-3
AF: 5-11
AD: 14-9
Bets and Pieces: Over the last seven years, Colorado State is a dismal 17-29 ATS as a favorite.
NEW MEXICO (6-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS): Like CSU, the Lobos return 18 starters, 10 of them to a defense that should be vastly improved. They get CSU at home so fourth place is a possibility.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 45-37
ATS: 45-31-2
HF: 12-10
HD: 9-6-1
AF: 5-5
AD: 19-10-1
Bets and Pieces: New Mexico has been a dreadful 19-10-1 as a road underdog in college football betting, since 2000.
UNLV (210 SU, 4-6-1 ATS): Injuries and turnovers, two elements that can be remedied, disabled the Rebels last year. With 14 returning starters, the team could flirt with a .500 record.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 28-53
ATS: 33-45-1
HF: 5-13
HD: 11-7
AF: 4-6
AD: 13-19
Bets and Pieces: UNLV is an unreliable 9-19 as a favorite the past seven seasons.
WYOMING (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS): With just 12 returning starters, questions on both the offensive and defensive lines, and a schedule that has most of their winnable games on the road, the Cowboys will struggle this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 25-55
ATS: 37-38-1
HF: 7-7
HD: 12-8-1
AF: 2-2
AD: 16-21
Bets and Pieces: The visiting team has covered seven of the last nine meetings in the Wyoming-Air Force series.
SAN DIEGO STATE (3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS): While the Aztecs attack should be more than adequate, the return of just four starters on a defense that gave up the second most points in the MWC is cause for concern.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 28-54
ATS: 35-40-2
HF: 8-6
HD: 7-13
AF: 1-4-1
AD: 19-17-1
Bets and Pieces: San Diego State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road openers.
AIR FORCE (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS): Troy Calhoun takes over the controls of the Falcons with word that the wishbone attack, which led the MWC in rushing and was last in passing, will be, ahem, "enhanced." Might work; might not.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 42-39
ATS: 36-41
HF: 12-17
HD: 4-6
AF: 6-9
AD: 13-9
Bets and Pieces: Air Force has lost four straight pointspread decisions to rival service academy Navy.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on the Western Athletic Conference.
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