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July 2007
This is the sixth of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
Either West Virginia or Louisville - but not both - could have a chance to play for the national championship. The teams meet before a Thursday night national television audience in Morgantown, Nov. 8. Notre Dame will be the best of the three independents, though Navy may have more victories this season. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
BIG EAST
WEST VIRGINIA (10-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS): The return of 15 starters, including RB Steve Slaton and QB Pat White, who combined for 2,963 yards rushing and 34 TDs, should keep the Mountaineers in the title hunt.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 54-26
ATS: 39-37-1
HF: 13-16-1
HD: 5-7
AF: 12-5
AD: 9-9
Bets and Pieces: West Virginia has proved an adept road college football betting favorite the last seven years, posting a 12-5 mark ATS.
LOUISVILLE (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS): With QB Brian Brohm (16 TDs, 5 INT) joining 13 other returning starters, the Cardinals have a chance to go all the way. They should be undefeated when they visit West Virginia in November.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 65-16
ATS: 50-29
HF: 24-14
HD: 2-0
AF: 17-11
AD: 7-3
Bets and Pieces: Louisville has been one of the best pointspread teams in the country the last seven seasons with winning marks in all four categories.
RUTGERS (10-2 SU, 8-3 ATS): If they can get past West Virginia at home, Oct. 27 (not an unrealistic goal) the Scarlet Knights could be 11-0 when they head to Louisville, Nov. 29. Once again though, Rutgers will have to win the close ones.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 32-48
ATS: 40-34-1
HF: 8-6
HD: 14-10
AF: 2-5
AD: 16-13-1
Bets and Pieces: Since 1995, Rutgers is 2-10 ATS in Big East home openers.
SOUTHERN FLORIDA (8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS): With a conference best 16 returning starters, a defense that is the best in the league and a schedule that has them hosting both West Virginia and Louisville, the Bulls are yet another Big East team with legitimate national aspirations.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 49-29
ATS: 33-24
HF: 11-6
HD: 5-4
AF: 7-3
AD: 10-11
Bets and Pieces: The home team has covered all four games in the USF-Louisville series.
PITTSBURGH (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS): The Panthers, who dropped their final five games last year after a 6-1 start, should be improved, although making progress in this challenging league will be difficult.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 48-32
ATS: 37-39
HF: 14-14
HD: 7-5
AF: 9-11
AD: 7-9
Bets and Pieces: Pitt is just 4-9 ATS in the "Backyard Brawl" against rival West Virginia, the last 13 meetings.
CINCINNATI (7-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS): The Bearcats return 16 starters from the team that upset Rutgers last year but must break-in a new head coach (Brian Kelly) and have just three Big East home games. A return to a bowl game looks doubtful.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 43-38
ATS: 40-36-2
HF: 13-11
HD: 9-5
AF: 3-9
AD: 14-11-2
Bets and Pieces: The underdog is 6-1 ATS all time in the Cincinnati-Syracuse series.
CONNECTICUT (4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS): With 14 returning starters the Huskies should be able to climb out of the Big East basement but improvement beyond that meager accomplishment will prove daunting.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 36-44
ATS: 40-29-1
HF: 10-7-1
HD: 9-5
AF: 6-3
AD: 15-14
Bets and Pieces: The home favorite is 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime in the UConn-Syracuse matchup.
SYRACUSE (4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS): With just 12 returning starters from a team that had neither its offense not its defense ranked in the top 100 nationally last year, the Orange are headed for another trying campaign this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 36-45
ATS: 46-34
HF: 20-7
HD: 9-5
AF: 5-5
AD: 11-17
Bets and Pieces: The Orange have been fabulous ATS at home in college football betting, posting a 29-12 record versus the number over the past seven seasons.
INDEPENDENTS
NOTRE DAME (10-2 SU, 4-7-1 ATS): The Fighting Irish return just nine starters, not one of whom is named Brady Quinn. The schedule, with trips to Penn State, Michigan and UCLA, as well as home games versus USC and Georgia Tech has some rough patches. Another 10-win season looks doubtful.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 54-26
ATS: 42-37-1
HF: 14-19
HD: 6-4
AF: 7-4-1
AD: 11-9
Bets and Pieces: The home team is 5-1 ATS the last six games in the Notre Dame-USC rivalry.
NAVY (9-3 SU, 6-5 ATS): The Middies should be able to move the football but with just three starters back on defense will they be able to stop anyone? The schedule, with the likes of Temple, Delaware, Ball State, Duke and North Texas, will lead to another winning record and bowl bid.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 36-43
ATS: 41-32-1
HF: 7-12
HD: 6-6-1
AF: 4-2
AD: 16-7
Bets and Pieces: The SU winner also is 11-0 ATS in the Navy-Duke series. The teams meet Nov. 4 this year.
ARMY (3-9 SU, 3-8 ATS): The Black Knights return 44 lettermen, including a dozen starters but the schedule is tough and this will be Stan Brock’s first season as head mentor at West Point so it appears that Army is headed for an 11th consecutive losing season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 14-67
ATS: 31-46-1
HF: 1-3
HD: 10-20-1
AF: 0-3
AD: 17-15
Bets and Pieces: Army is a miserable 11-23-1 ATS at home in college football betting the past seven seasons.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on the Mountain West.
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