|
July 2007
This is the third of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
USC will begin the year as the top team in the nation, a position the Trojans will have a good chance of defending, if they can negotiate road trips to Oregon and California. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
USC (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS): Experience at quarterback in the form of John David Booty and a defense that returns 10 starters should have Pete Carroll's club favored in all 12 of its games this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 66-17
ATS: 46-37
HF: 22-17
HD: 1-3
AF: 16-15
AD: 6-1
Bets and Pieces: The home team is 18-7 ATS in the USC-UCLA rivalry.
UCLA (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS): With 20 returning starters and just a dozen lost lettermen, the Bruins are in good position to notch their first 10-win season this millennium. In fact, UCLA and USC could both be undefeated when they clash, Dec. 1.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 48-32
ATS: 40-35-5
HF: 16-15-4
HD: 6-2
AF: 8-11
AD: 10-7-1
Bets and Pieces: UCLA has lost four of its last five pointspread decisions against Oregon.
OREGON (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS): The Ducks had great stats (a +136 YPG average) but decidedly lackluster results last year. Being -10 on the giveaways/takeaways table will do that. Look for them to turn things around this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 56-24
ATS: 43-34
HF: 18-18
HD: 3-2
AF: 10-7
AD: 12-7
Bets and Pieces: At 22-14, Oregon has been an adept play on the road ATS the last seven seasons.
ARIZONA STATE (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS): The Dennis Erickson era begins in Tempe with 14 returning starters and a schedule that could lead to an 8-0 start. It gets difficult after that but ASU has the potential for a nine or 10-win season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 44-37
ATS: 39-37-2
HF: 19-14
HD: 6-2-1
AF: 7-5
AD: 7-16-1
Bets and Pieces: The visitor is 12-3 ATS in the Arizona State-Arizona rivalry.
CALIFORNIA (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS): With just 13 returning starters (third fewest in the conference) and a difficult schedule, the Golden Bears probably won't be in the Pac 10 title hunt this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 44-37
ATS: 41-37-1
HF: 13-15
HD: 6-6
AF: 8-7
AD: 13-9-1
Bets and Pieces: Cal has covered four of its last five against Bay Area rival Stanford in "The Game."
OREGON STATE (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS): The Beavers might not be able to match last year's nine regular season wins but with 16 returning starters and a rugged defense should be headed to a bowl game at season's end.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 50-31
ATS: 41-33-1
HF: 18-9-1
HD: 4-5
AF: 7-10
AD: 12-9
Bets and Pieces: The visiting team is just 2-10 ATS the last 10 years in the "Civil War" versus Oregon.
ARIZONA (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS): The Wildcats have a strong defense and there's hope that the attack will be more productive now that Mike Stoops has decided to open things up on offense.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 28-52
ATS: 34-41-1
HF: 2-12
HD: 12-15-1
AF: 2-0
AD: 18-14
Bets and Pieces: The Wildcats haven't covered as a home favorite in college football betting since 2003 and are 2-12 over the past seven seasons.
WASHINGTON (5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS): A difficult schedule that includes a game against Ohio State will probably work against the Huskies winning more games than they lose this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 39-41
ATS: 31-46-3
HF: 8-18-1
HD: 9-8
AF: 1-5-1
AD: 13-14-1
Bets and Pieces: Washington has been a dreadful 9-23-2 as a favorite the last seven seasons.
WASHINGTON STATE (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS): The return of just 12 starters and a difficult road schedule, with games at USC, Oregon, California and Wisconsin, probably will mean a fourth straight non-winning season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 47-33
ATS: 39-38
HF: 8-15
HD: 8-6
AF: 12-6
AD: 11-8
Bets and Pieces: Washington State has failed to cover in the "Apple Cup" versus state rival Washington in six of the last seven years.
STANFORD (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS): Jim Harbaugh, who did a great job in San Diego, becomes the third Cardinal head coach in the last four years, inheriting a team that was more unlucky than bad last year. Look for modest improvement.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 30-48
ATS: 41-34-2
HF: 9-7
HD: 12-11
AF: 3-2-1
AD: 17-14-1
Bets and Pieces: Since 1992, the visiting team is 12-3 ATS in the Stanford-Cal rivalry.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on the ACC.
|
