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July 2007
This is the second of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
Michigan should replace Ohio State atop the Big Ten with Penn State as a possible sleeper. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
MICHIGAN (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS): The Wolverines lost 12 starters but a potent offense and a kind schedule that includes most of their top foes at home could propel Michigan into the BCS title game.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU 62-18
ATS: 41-37-2
HF: 23-21-1
HD: 0-1
AF: 11-13-1
AD: 7-2
Bets and Pieces: The favorite is just 1-10 ATS in the Michigan-Notre Dame series.
OHIO STATE (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS): The powerful offense that led the Buckeyes to the national title game in January is gone but OSU still will be a factor thanks to a staunch defense.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 66-25
ATS: 44-36-1
HF: 27-18-1
HD: 1-1
AF: 13-12
AD: 3-4
Bets and Pieces: The home team is 10-2 ATS in the Ohio State-Northwestern series, the last 12 games.
PENN STATE (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS): The Nittany Lions' young offense should grow up this year, giving PSU a chance at the Big Ten title. The key game is a Sept. 22 visit to Michigan.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 44-37
ATS: 41-38-1
HF: 18-14-1
HD: 8-5
AF: 6-6
AD: 9-12
Bets and Pieces: The home team is 10-4 ATS in college football betting the last 14 meetings in the Penn State-Michigan State series.
WISCONSIN (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS): Led by a strong running attack and the best kicking game in the Big Ten, Wisconsin is yet another team that could be in the thick of the race for a conference title.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 56-28
ATS: 42-38-1
HF: 16-21-1
HD: 5-3
AF: 11-9
AD: 9-5
Bets and Pieces: At 14-8, the Badgers have excelled in the underdog role the past seven seasons.
PURDUE (8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS): With 18 returning starters, Purdue is the most experienced team in the conference. The offense is solid and if the defense improves, the Boilermakers could surprise a few teams.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 49-32
ATS: 38-37-4
HF: 20-16-1
HD: 4-2
AF: 8-10-2
AD: 6-9-1
Bets and Pieces: The favorite is 12-7 ATS the last 19 games in the Purdue-Iowa series.
IOWA (6-6 SU, 1-10 ATS): The Hawkeyes underachieved last year but with 14 returning starters and a schedule without Michigan and Ohio State, could turn things around this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 51-30
ATS: 46-31-2
HF: 23-9
HD: 6-4-1
AF: 4-10
AD: 12-8-1
Bets and Pieces: The Hawkeyes were the worst pointspread team in the nation last year. Oddly, from 2000-2005 Iowa was one of the best with a 45-21-2 record ATS.
ILLINOIS (2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS): The Illini weren't nearly as bad as last year's record and, with 17 starters returning, could double their win total this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 28-52
ATS: 33-44
HF: 8-13
HD: 11-9
AF: 3-4
AD: 11-16
Bets and Pieces: The home team has covered just five of the last 19 games in the Illinois-Northwestern rivalry.
NORTHWESTERN (4-8 SU, 5-6 ATS): With 16 starters returning, including crack running back Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats should be an improved club in 2007, maybe even good enough to win six games and make it to a bowl.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 38-43
ATS: 42-36-2
HF: 6-10
HD: 14-10
AF: 7-3
AD: 15-13-2
Bets and Pieces: Northwestern is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with arch-rival Illinois.
MICHIGAN STATE (4-8 SU, 3-8-1 ATS): New head coach Mark Dantonio may be bringing some much needed discipline to the Spartans but the schedule is difficult and only 12 starters are back from last year's team that quit after losing a game it should have won against Notre Dame.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 37-44
ATS: 31-48-2
HF: 11-20
HD: 5-8-2
AF: 3-9
AD: 12-11
Bets and Pieces: With a 14-29 record, Michigan State has been one of the least reliable favorites in the nation the past seven seasons.
MINNESOTA (6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS): The Gophers lose just 12 lettermen, fewest in the Big Ten, but will need to be as opportunistic as last year when they were +18 on turnovers, if they hope to go to a fifth straight bowl game.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 45-35
ATS: 38-38
HF: 18-11
HD: 4-7
AF: 11-5
AD: 5-15
Bets and Pieces: Minnesota has performed well in college football betting as a favorite since 2000, posting a 29-16 record ATS.
INDIANA (5-7 SU, 5-6 ATS): It's an advantage not having to play Michigan or Ohio State but although 16 starters return, the Hoosiers just aren't very good.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 25-55
ATS: 27-48-1
HF: 8-5
HD: 8-17
AF: 0-2-1
AD: 11-24
Bets and Pieces: Indiana is miserable in the role of an underdog, notching just a 19-41 record ATS in that category the last seven seasons.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on the Pac 10.
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