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August 2007
Our 10-part college football betting preview analysis didn't mention the Sun Belt Conference. If you're guessing that this is the weakest conference in the country, you're right. But it really wasn't fair to leave it out.
Of the eight teams in the Sun Belt conference, only two, Troy and Middle Tennessee, had winning records last year and just one, Troy, is above .500 for the past seven seasons. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
TROY (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS): Fresh off a victory over Rice in the New Orleans Bowl, if the line can be rebuilt, the Trojans should pack a wallop on offense behind QB Omar Haugabook, the Sun Belt's leading passer last year. The defense returns eight starters from last year's conference champion outfit.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 44-37
ATS: 29-27-1
HF: 5-7
HD: 3-2
AF: 3-4
AD: 18-14-1
Bets and Pieces: The home team has covered four in a row in the Alabama state rivalry between Troy and UAB.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (5-7 SU, 5-6 ATS): With 18 returning starters, Howard Schnellenberger will have the most experienced team in the conference. The Owls also have a favorable home schedule and could be ready to return to the glory years of 2003/4 when they were 18-5.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 31-36
ATS: 11-18
HF: 0-4
HD: 2-3
AF: 0-0
AD: 8-10
Bets and Pieces: FAU is 2-8 ATS in November and December games in college football betting.
LOUISIANA-MONROE (4-8 SU, 8-3 ATS): All 11 starters return to the offense that ranked fourth in the conference last year so if the defense, which welcomes back six starters, can keep pace, the Warhawks should be a contender.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 21-59
ATS: 36-35
HF: 2-8
HD: 9-6
AF: 3-0
AD: 22-21
Bets and Pieces: Since 1996, ULM is just 2-9 ATS the week after a bye.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS): The Blue Raiders could have the league's best defense this year but a suspect offense and a difficult schedule might be too much to overcome.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 38-42
ATS: 40-35
HF: 13-14
HD: 1-2
AF: 8-7
AD: 17-12
Bets and Pieces: Since 1996, MTSU is 7-2 ATS the week before a bye.
ARKANSAS STATE (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS): The Indians led the Sun Belt Conference in rushing last year and again should be tough to stop on the ground. The defense is adequate but the league schedule, with games at FAU, ULM and MTSU, is challenging.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 29-52
ATS: 35-37-1
HF: 6-6
HD: 11-6
AF: 1-4
AD: 17-20-1
Bets and Pieces: The favorite is 7-1 ATS the eight games of the Arkansas State-North Texas series.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS): The Ragin' Cajuns have just 12 starters back and their 16 lettermen lost are the most in the Sun Belt Conference. The offense looks solid but the defense is too porous for ULL to make a big move up the conference ladder.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 27-53
ATS: 32-37-3
HF: 3-8-2
HD: 9-6-1
AF: 2-6
AD: 18-17
Bets and Pieces: Lafayette is just 5-14-2 ATS in the role of a favorite the past seven seasons.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (0-12 SU, 4-8 ATS): Things can't get worse in Miami but will they get better? Probably. While the Golden Panthers break in a new head coach and new system, they'd have to be awfully unlucky to again lose the 42 starts they did last year to injury and suspension.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 15-41
ATS: 11-14
HF: 1-2
HD: 2-4
AF: 0-1
AD: 7-6
Bets and Pieces: FIU has been a board team for just three years but already has shown difficulty covering at home (3-6).
NORTH TEXAS (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS): The Mean Green returns 15 starters - 10 of them on defense - but their most winnable game, against Florida International, is on the road this year. Looks like a rough season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 36-44
ATS: 41-37
HF: 12-8
HD: 7-6
AF: 7-5
AD: 15-18
Bets and Pieces: North Texas is 12-21 ATS on grass surfaces since 1999.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Analysis is an important factor in college football betting, and our previews should get you started out right.
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