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July 2007
This is the first of a 10-part college football betting season preview.
Half of the 12-team SEC could wind up in the top 25 with LSU given the best chance of the bunch to play for a national championship. (2006 Regular season records in parentheses):
WEST DIVISION
LSU (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS): Eight starters return to the defense that allowed just 12.6 PPG last year and the offense is strong up front, though No. 1 NFL draft choice, QB JaMarcus Russell, must be replaced.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 65-18
ATS: 42-35-2
HF: 21-20
HD: 2-2
AF: 10-6-1
AD: 7-6-1
Bets and Pieces: LSU is 13-7 ATS versus non-conference foes and has four (Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane and Louisiana Tech) on this year's schedule.
ALABAMA (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS): Nick Saban arrives with much fanfare and the chance to make an immediate impression as 14 starters return and the schedule has LSU, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee all coming to Tuscaloosa this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 44-38
ATS: 34-44-3
HF: 15-24
HD: 3-6-1
AF: 5-7-1
AD: 11-7-1
Bets and Pieces: The Crimson Tide has dropped five consecutive pointspread decisions to arch-rival Auburn.
ARKANSAS (10-3 SU, 4-8 ATS): Having to play LSU, Tennessee and Alabama on the road probably precludes another 10-win season but the Hogs, led by the SEC's top two rushers, will be formidable.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 49-33
ATS: 39-39
HF: 15-18
HD: 7-6
AF: 4-4
AD: 13-9
Bets and Pieces: Arkansas is 6-1 as a home underdog in college football betting the last two seasons.
AUBURN (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS): After losing just three SEC games in the last three years, with road trips to LSU, Florida, Georgia and Arkansas, Auburn could lose that many this year alone.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 62-20
ATS: 43-35-1
HF: 22-19-1
HD: 3-1
AF: 9-7
AD: 9-6
Bets and Pieces: Auburn has covered five straight overall and four in-a-row at home versus Alabama.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-9 SU, 5-5-1 ATS): MSU could be one of the most improved teams in the nation, especially on offense, where nine starters return.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 24-56
ATS: 31-44-1
HF: 7-8
HD: 9-16
AF: 4-6
AD: 11-14-1
Bets and Pieces: The Bulldogs are a miserable 16-24 ATS at home the last seven seasons.
MISSISSIPPI (4-8 SU, 5-4-2 ATS): The SEC West cellar looms for a team that was out-gained by a league worst 107 YPG last year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 40-40
ATS: 34-40-3
HF: 11-18-2
HD: 9-3
AF: 3-6-1
AD: 11-13
Bets and Pieces: Ole Miss has gone undefeated ATS at home in four of the last seven seasons.
EAST DIVISION
SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5 SU, 8-3 ATS): In his third season in Columbia, this could be the year for Steve Spurrier. Seventeen starters return but the road schedule is brutal.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 45-35
ATS: 39-39-1
HF: 13-13-1
HD: 7-11
AF: 7-4
AD: 12-10
Bets and Pieces: South Carolina is 10-6 ATS in the SEC the last two years.
GEORGIA (8-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS): The Bulldogs have only 11 starters back but with stability at QB and a favorable conference schedule, should be a contender to win their second SEC title in the last three seasons.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 64-19
ATS: 40-37-2
HF: 17-19-1
HD: 0-3
AF: 12-8
AD: 6-3
Bets and Pieces: Georgia has been a road warrior since 2000, posting an 18-11 mark versus the spread.
FLORIDA (12-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS): The BCS champs have the fewest returning starters (eight) and most lettermen lost (27) in the conference, which, along with road games at LSU and South Carolina, will make an SEC title repeat difficult.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 62-20
ATS: 40-38-2
HF: 22-18-1
HD: 0-1
AF: 6-14
AD: 7-2
Bets and Pieces: The Gators are just 4-11-2 ATS the last two seasons in SEC play.
TENNESSEE (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS): QB Erik Ainge leads a potent offense but the defense has some holes to fill. The Volunteers' fate will be determined by key games at Florida and at Alabama and home contests versus LSU, South Carolina and Georgia.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 59-23
ATS: 38-44
HF: 14-27
HD: 3-3
AF: 12-7
AD: 7-6
Bets and Pieces: Tennessee has been a liability at home (17-30 ATS) but a quality play on the road (19-13 ATS) the last seven seasons.
VANDERBILT (4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS): The Commodores have the most returning starters (18) in the SEC, a key element which, despite another tough schedule, could lead to a winning record and a bowl berth in December.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 20-60
ATS: 34-37-3
HF: 3-10
HD: 11-10-3
AF: 2-3
AD: 18-13
Bets and Pieces: Vandy has posted a winning record (29-23-3) as an underdog the last seven seasons.
KENTUCKY (7-5 SU, 6-1 ATS): The Wildcats should be able to move the football but defense will be a problem and most of what normally would be winnable SEC games are on the road this season.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2000-2006)
SU: 27-53
ATS: 38-37-1
HF: 9-7-1
HD: 12-12
AF: 3-2
AD: 14-16
Bets and Pieces: Kentucky has covered five straight games versus Florida.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Our next college football betting analysis will be on the Big Ten. Stay tuned.
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