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February 2007
While betting totals for the Feb. 25 Academy Awards won't approach what was wagered on Super Bowl XLI earlier in the month, with a worldwide television audience estimated at more than two billion people, there's plenty of incentive - including cultivating a slew of new bettors - for sportsbooks to post prices on many of the top categories. What's more, a handful of industriously innovative sportsbooks have mimicked the Super Bowl betting menu, adding a series of intriguing proposition wagers.
Alas, with so many categories lacking drama (get it?) in many cases, sportsbooks have pitted the favorite against the other four contenders in the field. While this does eliminate the chance for a huge payoff given the unlikelihood of a 40/1 or 50/1 longshot scoring an upset, it does give the chalk haters a more reasonable chance for success.
Okay, enough trailers. The envelope, please…
BEST PICTURE
| The Departed | 4/5 |
| Little Miss Sunshine | 3/1 |
| Babel | 7/2 |
| Letters From Iwo Jima or The Queen | 7/1 |
Final Cut: Little Miss Sunshine was the surprise winner at the Screen Actors' Guild (SAG) awards while Babel took home the hardware for best drama at the Golden Globe awards but the crime saga The Departed rates the favorite's role based on a strong cast that includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Jack Nicholson, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg and Martin Sheen. Remember, the largest voting block in the Academy, some 1,200, are actors.
BEST DIRECTOR
| Martin Scorcese (The Departed) | 1/6 |
| FIELD (All others) | 7/2 |
Final Cut: Nominated five times, including for such classics as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and GoodFellas, but with no wins, Scorcese will be tough to beat this time. Scorcese picked up the Directors Guild of America award. The DGA has forecast the winning Oscar director an astounding 51 of 57 years. Gamblers who play the field entry get Stephen Frears (The Queen), Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel), and Paul Greengrass (United 93).
BEST ACTOR
| Forrest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) | 1/7 |
| FIELD (All others) | 4/1 |
Final Cut: Whitaker was masterful as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin and it would be a monumental upset if he lost. There is some sentiment for 74-year-old Peter O'Toole (Venus) who has an honorary Oscar but none for acting, and is lumped in the field along with Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) and Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness).
BEST ACTRESS
| Helen Mirren (The Queen) | 1/30 |
| FIELD (All others) | 8/1 |
Final Cut: Mirren is the shortest priced Academy Awards favorite in an acting category, ever, eclipsing the 1/25 odds afforded Julia Roberts before she won a Best Actress statue for her role as Erin Brockovich in 2001. Meryl Streep was excellent in The Devil Wears Prada but like Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) and Kate Winslet (Little Children), have no shot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
| Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) | 1/2 |
| FIELD (All others) | 6/5 |
Final Cut: Murphy gets points from voters for taking a secondary role and stretching outside his comedy comfort zone. If an upset occurs, it's usually in one of the supporting categories so bettors can't be faulted if they opt for a field that is led by Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) and also includes Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) | 1/5 |
| FIELD (All others) | 3/1 |
Final Cut: With eight nominations but none for Best Picture or Best Director, it's up to Murphy and Hudson to salvage the night for Dreamgirls. Few doubt that Hudson, an "American Idol" also-ran, will do her part. Adriana Barraza (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine) and Rinko Kikuchi (Babel) form the talented entry for those looking to beat the favorite.
In addition to the top six Academy Awards categories, some sportsbooks also have prices in other categories, including Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Film, Best Animated Short Film, Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song.
What's more, a handful of sportsbooks are offering proposition betting on everything from an over/under on how many awards Dreamgirls snares to the length of the TV broadcast and whether or not there'll be a streaker.
Clearly, if not in volume, at least in scope, Academy Award betting has become prime box office for most sportsbooks.
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