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September 2007
Sports betting, particularly football betting, has become significantly more sophisticated over the past decade with players mining years of research in an effort to gain an edge on sports books. These so-called technical handicappers use trends, or prior team tendencies, to try to predict future results. Let's see if we can't sift through all the data to find the very baker's dozen of plays for this weekend:
SATURDAY, OCT. 6
Nebraska at Missouri: The home team has covered the pointspread five straight games in this rivalry so Missouri looks like the play. Last year, in the game that ultimately decided the winner of the Big 12 North Division, the Cornhuskers, who closed as a 4 1/2-point favorite, beat the Tigers in Lincoln, 34-20. But this year's game is in Columbia, where Missouri beat Nebraska 41-24 in 2005, holding the Big Red Machine to minus two yards rushing. Additionally, the schedule is much kinder for Missouri, which has an open date Sept. 29 while Nebraska plays Iowa State.
West Virginia at Syracuse: Last year, the Orangemen, +25 1/2, snapped a five game pointspread losing streak against the Mountaineers, falling 41-17, to beat the spread. But the game was ugly with UWV quarterback Pat White (who's back) running for 247 yards and four touchdowns. The fact that the game is at Syracuse only means that West Virginia will have a smaller spread to cover.
Iowa at Penn State: Iowa has covered six of the last seven meetings in this Big Ten series and is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) on the road in Happy Valley. The last time these two teams met, in 2004, neither scored a touchdown when Iowa beat Penn State, 6-4.
Virginia Tech at Clemson: The Hokies have won four in a row straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Tigers and the games haven't been close with Virginia Tech winning all four by double digit margins while enjoying a 133-38 scoring advantage in those encounters. In fact, Clemson hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 1989. What's more, Virginia Tech has won its first conference road game of the season for the last 16 years.
Vanderbilt at Auburn: The Tigers have covered the spread the last five times the Commodores have visited Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. Nearly as potent, Auburn is 17-8 ATS versus SEC rivals the past three seasons. Vanderbilt has lost 12 consecutive games SU in this series and each of the last five losses at Auburn have been by more than 17 points.
Kansas at Kansas State: KSU is 11-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS at home versus Kansas the last 13 years.
Arizona at Oregon State: Oregon State has covered seven of the last eight meetings in this series. What's more, the favorite, which figures to be OSU, is 9-2, the last 11 games.
Arizona State at Washington State: The favorite is 10-1-1 the last dozen games in this Pac-10 rivalry.
Florida at LSU: Not only is the road team 11-4 ATS the last 15 games in this SEC rivalry but Florida has covered its last four trips to Baton Rouge.
SUNDAY, OCT. 7
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: The Panthers have covered six consecutive games on the road versus the Saints, including five straight outright victories.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS versus the Steelers the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 in their last four visits to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (NBC): Over the past 20 games, the road team has covered the spread 14 times.
MONDAY, OCT. 8
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (ESPN): These teams only have met once in the last decade and that 2003 game was a pointspread tie. The Cowboys are 29-25 ATS on Monday Night Football while the Bills are 19-17-1 ATS on MNF, including 11-5 ATS at home. Not great trends here but it seems that everyone wants to bet the Monday Night game so we offer a slight preference for the Bills.
Are the above sportsbook busters guaranteed? Of course not. But historians point out that by studying the past we're better equipped to predict the future. That may be true for sports betting, too.
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