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November 2006
NBA betting is a lot like baseball betting; a player needs discipline and stamina to deal with the daily drain of a long and debilitating six-month season. And while considering factors that are unique to NBA betting such as the impact of travel, bettors also should never lose sight of the fact that it is talent, melded into a cohesive team concept, which wins most games.
Or as Damon Runyon once offered, "The race isn't always to the swift or the fight to the strong. But that's the way to bet."
Heeding that advice, let's evaluate the teams in the NBA's Western Conference.
Legend: SU = Straight Up; ATS = Against the Spread; O/U = Over/Under. (Because we don't expect you to stop NBA betting once the regular season ends, all records include post-season play.)
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
Dallas Mavericks: Like their NBA Finals playmates, the Mavericks have essentially the same cast back for another run at a title. That starts with Dirk Nowitzki (26.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG). DeSagana Diop gives Dallas a much-needed presence in the paint, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Devin Harris are able in their roles and the bench, led by Jerry Stackhouse, is strong.
Last Season: SU: 74-31, ATS: 55-47-3, O/U: 47-57-1
San Antonio Spurs: Francisco Elson (it's OK to say, "Who?") joins more familiar names Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Bruce Bowen in the starting lineup of a team that went into overtime of Game 7 of last season's Western Conference finals. But can they overcome Dallas?
Last Season: SU: 70-25, ATS: 44-50-1, O/U: 43-50-2
Houston Rockets: The Rockets certainly have a great duo in Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady but injuries limited the pair to just 31 games together last season. Add health and newcomers Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells and Houston should be back in the playoff hunt.
Last Season: SU: 34-48, ATS: 46-40-2, O/U: 41-45-2
Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies hope that Stromile Swift, who came back to Memphis in the Battier deal with Houston, will help all-star Pao Gasol (20.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and Mike Miller solidify their front line. Rookie Rudy Gay has a big upside.
Last Season: SU: 49-37, ATS: 45-38-3, O/U: 37-48-1
New Orleans Hornets: Having improved 20 wins from the previous season, New Orleans took the next step, acquiring Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler and Bobby Jackson while maintaining their two best players, Chris Paul and David West. Look for more improvement.
Last Season: SU: 38-44, ATS: 38-43-1, O/U: 44-38
NORTHWEST DIVISION
Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets finished last season with a 32-8 run so expectations are high for 2006/07. Start with Carmelo Anthony (26.5 PPG) and Nene, who missed all but three minutes after blowing out his knee last season. Throw in Marcus Camby, Andre Miller, Kenyon Martin and the recently acquired J.R. Smith and the Nuggets are a contender.
Last Season: SU: 45-42, ATS: 42-45, O/U: 41-45-1
Utah Jazz: Utah fashioned a .500 record last season with a rookie, Deron Williams, at the point. Williams made the all-rookie team last season and figures to be even better this season. A healthy Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer, along with Mehmet Okur, will give the Jazz a real shot in this weak division.
Last Season: SU: 41-41, ATS: 39-43, O/U: 45-35-2
Seattle Supersonics: With a move to Oklahoma City hanging over their heads, the Sonics enter the season with top guns Ray Allen (25.1 PPG) and Rashard Lewis (20.1 PPG) back from the team that finished second in the NBA in scoring. Unfortunately, Seattle also finished last in points allowed, a fact which could keep them from the playoffs again.
Last Season: SU: 35-47, ATS: 37-44-1, O/U: 49-33
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves still are trying to find the right combination of players to compliment perennial all-star Kevin Garnett (21.8 PPG, 12.7 RPG). Enter Mike James (20.3 PPG), from Toronto, to play the point. Minnesota was 28th in scoring last season; not good.
Last Season: SU: 33-49, ATS: 38-44, O/U: 39-43
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland has eight new players on its roster, including a pair of prized rookies, No. 2 selection LaMarcus Aldridge and No. 6 pick Brandon Roy. The Trail Blazers scored the fewest points in the NBA last season so don't expect an immediate turnaround.
Last Season: SU: 21-61, ATS: 33-47-2, O/U: 38-43-1
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