Recently,
The Greek Sportsbook examined the four handicapping pillars - speed, pace, track bias and value - on which a foundation of successful horse race wagering is based. Aided by a professional horse player who asked that his identity be protected, over the next few months we'll take a closer look at some common handicapping mistakes, a series of misguided strategies and unproven theories that often doom the unsophisticated bettor:
Handicapping Mistake #3: Class will tell: "Years ago, before there were reliable speed figures and when there were fewer horses and fewer racetracks, class might have meant something. Today, there's no such thing as class," said the professional horse player. "Before accurate speed figures were available, people would try to compare horses by looking at where and against whom they raced. They thought that the better horses would race in the higher classes. These days, speed figures tell you who the fastest horses are. Generally, the fastest horses race in the best races, so nowadays, if you're talking about class, you're really just talking about speed."
The player insisted that the proliferation of horses and racetracks has led to a dilution of the product, blurring the lines that once separated runners based on class.
"The entire game is based on speed and money. Trainers run their horses where they think they can win. They pick their spots based on how fast they think their horses can run, not on any outdated class system. In the old days you could never risk serious money on a maiden winner moving up to allowance. Now, if your horse is fast enough, you can."
The whole class system, said the player, is arbitrary.
Start right at the top with Grade 1 races and you can see the fallacy in the system. What have you got, half a dozen people who don't know anything about betting sitting in a room somewhere deciding what stakes should be Grade 1? Aren't these the same geniuses who made the Blue Grass Stakes a Grade 2 a couple of years ago?
Obviously, the quality of a race is determined by the quality of the horses that compete in that race so designating a race as a Grade 1, months before you know the field, is ridiculous. Sure, based on history, the Belmont Stakes is a Grade 1. But that certainly wasn't a Grade 1 field in the Belmont Stakes this year.
What's really stupid though is how many people believe in class. You have guys making selections based on how many Grade 1 races a horse won. That's nonsense. Colonial Affair had never won a stakes of any kind before he won the 1993 Belmont.
If a horse's speed figure in, say, an allowance is fast enough to win a stakes then, in the right circumstances, he can win a stakes. The most important thing is current form. Things like "back class," how a horse might have performed months or years ago, are worthless.
Even in Daily Racing Form, which should know better, you read ridiculous statements like, "faced better," or "first time in claimers." When they load a horse into the gate, he doesn't look around and say, "I raced against better horses so I should be able to beat these," or, "These are just a bunch of claimers." Besides, being in a claimer doesn't mean anything. Claiming races sometimes are stronger than allowance races. An allowance can be weak, depending on the conditions.
The player warned against making absolute rules or setting up rigid guidelines for a series of races.
"The game is dynamic and changeable and you should guard against making blanket statements," he said. "People will try to tell you that you should never do this in some situation or that you should always do that in another. But every race is a separate puzzle with its own clues. Sometimes, for instance, a horse may be fast enough to move from maiden to allowance or from allowance to stakes but there are other conditions - track bias, post position, the way the race sets up, odds - that may be working against him or make him a risky bet. All these factors have to be considered, of course.
"But don't let anyone tell you a horse can't win because he doesn't have enough class. If he's fast enough, and the situation is right, he can win."
Those who are foolish enough to believe in class, contended the betting professional, do the sharp player a tremendous service.
The greatest thing about class is that there are plenty of idiots out there who think it actually means something. Because of that, they often overlook horses with legitimate chances to win and bet horses who have no shot. They can create true value.
