|
October 2006
The 23rd edition of the Breeders' Cup - renamed the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships five years ago to give it a sense of global importance - comes to Churchill Downs (and sportsbooks everywhere), Nov. 4 so even if you're not one who regularly plays the ponies, this is the time to make horse betting your passion.
Go ahead, lay $11 to win $10 on football or basketball if you wish but if the professional gamblers are right and betting is all about getting value, then you have to concede that thoroughbred horse racing provides the player with a much better opportunity for a life-altering score. And the Breeders' Cup, where full fields and hefty prices are more the rule than the exception, only enhances that horse betting opportunity.
Of course, racing's $20 million version of the Super Bowl (minus the robust TV ratings), has its pitfalls and booby traps so no player should tackle the eight-race extravaganza before asking himself four key questions:
Q: Who's going to win the Breeders' Cup races?
A: The Breeders' Cup is similar to any other set of races in that the handicapper should attempt to make a decision based on each horse's chances in relation to his price. This is the very essence of value, which along with speed, pace and track bias, form the four pillars of horse betting.
It may sound odd but trying to pick the winner of a race is a hopeless strategy. Rather than betting picks, you should try to pick your bets.
Q: How many of the eight Breeders' Cup races should I bet?
A: Probably all of them. With full or near full fields, it's a rare opportunity to get excellent value on your wagers. In fact, the last time the Breeders' Cup was held at Churchill Downs, in 2000, Spain paid $113.80 (for a $2 wager) for her victory in the Distaff and Caressing returned $96.00 for winning the Juvenile Fillies.
Q: How will the European horses perform at Churchill Downs?
A: Probably a lot better than the British did at the Battle of Yorktown. When the Breeders' Cup is held in humid locales such as Florida, Texas and Los Angeles, most European horses, which already have grown their winter coats, just can't handle the heat. In fact, in 1992, when it was 87 degrees at Gulfstream Park, European horses didn't get any closer to the winner's circle than walking past it during the post parade.
With temperatures similar to London, Dublin and most western European capitals, Louisville should prove far friendlier to equines crossing the Big Pond.
Q: What's the best way to play the Ultra Pick Six?
A: With a lot of money. Let's face it, unless you invest a large sum of cash that allows you the luxury of many combinations, your chances of hitting the gimmick are about as likely as John Rocker celebrating Kwanza.
If you're a small horse betting investor, you have to be bold and innovative. That means going against the crowd. For example, instead of singling the day's most likely winner the only way you're going to beat the masses is to do something audacious such as leaving an odds-on horse off your ticket. Conversely, rather than spreading out to four or five horses in a tough, competitive race, the right move is to take a stand.
That's just what Barry Fey, the noted music producer, did when he hit a six-figure Pick Six several years ago. Fey singled a $100 horse. Now that's hitting a high note.
BETS AND PIECES: Sure there's a lot of juice but outside of a lottery, which has even more vigorish and requires no skill at all, how often do you get a chance to win millions on a $2 horse betting investment? That may be the ultimate rationale for investing a gas house deuce on this year's Breeders' Cup Ultra Pick Six, a gimmick that paid a "take this job and shove it" $3,058,138 in 1999.
Granted, nailing any pick six on a single ticket happens about as often as Bill Parcells asks Terrell Owens over for Thanksgiving dinner but as Newsday columnist Paul Moran once said, "You've got to bet it just in case this is the luckiest day of your life."
Or, as the late Jack Rubin put it, "Unless you make a bet every day, you might be walking around lucky and never know it."
Given that, even if horse betting isn't on your regular wagering menu, the Breeders' Cup offers just too much value and too much opportunity for a real score, to sit on your wallet.
|
