With
The Greek Sportsbook offering a myriad of wagering options on thousands of games each season, sophisticated gamblers understand that in order to be successful betting online on Major League Baseball, a player needs to concentrate on eight core factors:
Pitching: No individual player in any team sport has as substantial an impact on the betting line as any of a limited number of high quality pitchers in baseball. Because they are the only players involved in their team's every play, it is primarily starting pitchers who have the most profound impact on a baseball game's odds. A dominant pitcher on a good team, such as Boston's Curt Schilling, Houston's Roy Oswalt or Minnesota's Johan Santana, would be favored in almost every matchup situation. And even on those rare occasions when a Schilling, Oswalt or Santana would not be the wagering choice, such as facing the Cardinals Chris Carpenter in St. Louis or the Blue Jays Roy Halladay in Toronto, for example, they might only be a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115) where almost any other pitcher would be +150 or more.
Left/Right: Although platooning is common, many teams still have left-handed or right-handed dominated batting lineups that perform significantly better against lefty or righty pitching. This can be especially true for teams that rely on left-handed power hitters who often have a notoriously difficult time hitting southpaw pitching. Crafty bet makers are aware of these statistical variations and pounce if they believe one team's best hitters will be compromised by an unfavorable left/left or right/right matchup.
Day/Night: The major impact here is on the game's total. In general, batters see the ball better during the day, a factor that, coupled with warmer temperatures, often results in more run scoring. Interestingly, weather can also play a role in domed stadiums such as those found in Houston, Milwaukee and Arizona. A closed dome usually favors hitters while an open dome gives the advantage to pitchers. The biggest problem here is securing that information.
Personnel: "Good pitching stops good hitting," contends the old baseball adage but offense, especially in ballparks favorable to power hitters, counts for something too. So does defense, particularly up the middle (catcher, shortstop, second base, centerfield). In general, if the pitching matchup is even, the team with the best overall talent will be favored.
The Home Field/Weather: The absence of travel and a familiarity with a ballpark are worth something but the advantages of the home field are more subtle in baseball than in other sports. One advantage is that the home team can doctor the field to enhance the talents of its personnel. For example, a team with superior speed and adept bunters can slope the first and third baselines inward so more balls roll fair. Also of great importance, park configuration and weather conditions vary greatly from stadium to stadium, affecting totals. The velocity and wind direction in cities such as Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and San Francisco can determine whether balls will be leaving the stadium or winding up as fly ball outs on the warning track.
Surface: Some teams, usually because of their pitching, are more suited to slower grass fields than slicker, faster fields of Astroturf and other artificial surfaces. A sinker ball pitcher who keeps the ball low would have a greater chance of success on grass, where the ball does not go through the infield as quickly. Like tennis, surface matters.
Umpires: The tracking of individual umpires became a handicapping tool about 20 years ago. Sophisticated players take notes on home umpires, assessing their interpretation of the strike zone. A "pitcher's umpire" would have a generous strike zone and a "batter's umpire" would have a strict strike zone. But the analysis is more sophisticated than that. Gamblers track whether an umpire's strike zone is generous or stingy high, low, and/or wide. Then they assess whether the pitcher fits that zone and wager accordingly. Umpiring assignments generally are available to the public 30 minutes before the start of a game. Once the assignments are posted for Game 1 of a series the bettor knows the assignments for the rest of the series too: Umpiring crews rotate clockwise, meaning the home plate umpire in Game 1 will be the third base umpire in Game 2 and the first base umpire in Game 1 will be the home plate umpire in Game 2.
Streaks: Pitchers, batters and even teams encounter those periods where almost everything seems to go wonderfully right or woefully wrong. What's more, because most baseball wagering is done using a money line as opposed to a pointspread in football and basketball, bookmakers are powerless to affect the outcome of a contest. They can jack up the price on a hot team but if bettors are willing to lay it, there's nothing they can do about it. Streaks occur in all sports, of course, but because they are so pronounced in baseball, successful gamblers have learned that it is far more profitable to ride a streak than try to buck that trend.
