Look for the 2005/06 NCAA Men's Basketball champions to again reside in North Carolina this year. But cast your glance about 15 miles southwest of Chapel Hill, down Tobacco Road to Durham, where the Duke Blue Devils, not the defending champion UNC Tar Heels, are the team to beat.
The top team in all the preseason polls, oddsmakers at
The Greek Sportsbook have no argument with the voters, endorsing the ballot initiative by making Duke a 5/1 future book favorite to win next year's NCAA Championship in the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, April 3, 2006.
Connecticut, Texas, Louisville and Michigan State are among Duke's primary competition but a number of other teams - many of them with very attractive prices - also could threaten the Blue Devils. Savvy bettors understand that placing a future book wager now can provide them with the flexibility to maneuver and hedge during the conference tournaments and Big Dance in March.
The 2005/06 season tips off with a slam-dunk later this month when NCAA title contenders Connecticut, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Maryland join Arkansas and Chaminade in the Maui Invitational, Nov. 21-23.
Let's look at the major contenders. (Last season's record in parentheses):
Duke (27-6): The Blue Devils have averaged 31 victories a season over the past eight years but Coach Mike Krzyzewski should have one of his best outfits this time around. The team, which has superior depth for a change, is led by the inside/outside duo of center Sheldon Williams (15.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG) and deadeye guard J.J. Redick (21.2 PPG). The superb recruiting class includes 6-11 Josh McRoberts, who turned down a 2005 NBA lottery position to play for Duke, and Greg Paulus, another McDonald's All-American, who should push returning starter Sean Dockery for time at the point.
Connecticut (23-8): Led by Big East Defensive Player of the Year Josh Boone (12.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG) and Rudy Gay (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG as a freshman last year), the Huskies may have the nation's deepest frontcourt. With the status of point guard Marcus Williams (9.6 PPG, 7.8 APG) uncertain due to his involvement in the theft of laptop computers, Head Coach Jim Calhoun, entering his 20th season in Storrs, will need that unit to excel. Rashad Anderson (11.9 PPG) is an adept long-range bomber but UConn will need Williams if they are to challenge for a title.
Texas (21-10): Much like Connecticut, Texas will rely on a restored frontcourt to take the Longhorns to the Final Four. P.J. Tucker (13.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG) returns after becoming academically ineligible last January. LaMarcus Aldridge, (9.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who missed Texas' final 15 games with a hip injury, also is back, along with Brad Buckman (12.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Daniel Gibson (14.2 PPG) is reliable at guard and Coach Rick Barnes hopes that either of two junior college transfers, Craig Winder or J.D. Lewis, will fill the other backcourt spot.
Michigan State (26-7): Tom Izzo, the only coach with four Final Four appearances in the past seven years, has a shot to make it five out of eight, this season. Maurice Ager (14.1 PPG), Shannon Brown (10.9 PPG) and Drew Neitzel (3/5 PPG) can fill it up and shut it down from the perimeter while center Paul Davis (12.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is a top big man. The concern is for a power forward to complement Davis. Marquise Gray, a redshirt freshman, could be the man.
Louisville (33-5): The Cardinals will miss Francisco Garcia, Larry O'Bannon and Ellis Myles, who combined to average over 40 points last year, but Louisville still will be a factor in its first season in the Big East. David Padgett, who transferred from Kansas, will be a welcome addition in the paint. Padgett injured his ankle but should be ready by late November. Taquan Dean (14.4 PPG) and Juan Palacios (9.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) will ease Padgett's transition with Brandon Jenkins and a quartet of freshmen filling in the other holes.
Kentucky (28-6): Tubby Smith has some rebuilding to do, especially if 6-10, 266-pound center Randolph Morris is ruled ineligible by the NCAA, but Kentucky rarely is out of the title picture and should be in the thick of it this season, too. Strength of the team is the returning backcourt of Rajon Rondo (8.1 PPG) and Patrick Sparks (11.0 PPG). Rondo led the SEC in steals and made the conference All-Freshman team. Sparks is a threat from beyond the arc. The problem will be up front where Smith is counting on JC All-American transfer Rekalin Sims to ease the loss of Kelenna Azubuike (14.7 PPG) and Chuck Hayes (10.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG).
UCLA (18-11): It's been a while since we've seen this much optimism in Bruins camp but Coach Ben Howland seems to have the goods this year. Four starters return, including Jordan Farmar, (13.2 PPG, 5.3 APG) the Pac-10's Freshman of the Year last season, Arron Affalo (10.8 PPG), Josh Shipp (9.3 PPG) and Michael Fey (8.6 PPG). Unfortunately for the Bruins, Dijon Thompson (18.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) has moved on to the NBA but Cedric Bozeman, who missed last season with an ACL tear, and the presence of five well-regarded freshmen, should lessen the loss.
Oklahoma (25-8): The return of four starters, including Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Taj Gray (14.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has the Sooners squarely in the national title hunt. Kelvin Sampson also can call on returnees Terrell Everett (12.5 PPG, 5.0 APG), Kevin Bookout (11.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and David Godbold (4.6 PPG). The cast of newcomers is so talented that Godbold, who was a terror on defense, will have difficulty holding on to his starting job.
Villanova (24-8): The Wildcats return their entire roster from the team that lost to eventual champion North Carolina on a controversial call, 67-66, in the Sweet 16 round last season. A key will be whether Curtis Sumpter, (15.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) who tore an ACL in the second round of the Tournament, returns at full strength. If so, he'll join Allan Ray (16.2 PPG, 37.6% on treys), Randy Foye (15.5 PPG), Mike Nardi (8.2 PPG) and Will Sheridan (5.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG) in a very strong starting lineup. Kyle Lowery (7.5 PPG as a freshman) gives Coach Jay Wright another scoring option.
Boston College (25-5): Hard to believe but the Eagles may be the second best team in the ACC (behind Duke) this season. That's because four starters return from last year's Big East co-champions, including what may be the best forward tandem in the nation, Craig Smith (18.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and Jared Dudley (16.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG). Throw in guards Sean Marshall (11.1 PPG) and Louis Hinnant (5.3 PPG) and Coach Al Skinner need only find someone to patrol the paint until Sean Williams, who was suspended for a marijuana possession, returns, probably in January. Evan Neisler, a freshman, could be the one who helps out up front.
Arizona (30-7): The Arizona program is so deep that the Wildcats lose Salim Stoudamire (18.4 PPG) and Channing Frye (15.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG) to the NBA and still have four legitimate all-conference hopefuls and are the team to beat in the Pac-10. Start with Hassan Adams (12.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who toyed with turning pro but is back in the Lute Olson nest for another season. Ivan Radenovich (8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG), Mustafa Shakur (8.1 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Jawann McClellan (5.8 PPG) offer further evidence that the cupboard isn't bare.
Gonzaga (26-5): This could be the year that Gonzaga goes from Cinderella to champion. Really, the Stags are that good. Adam Morrison is the key, a player so skilled that he's even been whispered in same breath with that most revered of Gonzaga grads, John Stockton. The forward, who has been compared to Larry Bird, averaged 19.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG last season as a sophomore. Morrison's supporting cast includes returning starters Derek Raivio (13.0 PPG), J.P. Batista (12.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Errell Knight (6.9 PPG). Sean Mallon (7.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG), redshirt freshman Josh Heytvelt and juco transfer Mamery Diallo will vie for playing time at the lone opening up front.
Memphis (22-16): With Louisville and Cincinnati gone, Memphis looks like the team to beat in Conference USA. The Tigers return five of their top seven scorers, including Darius Washington (15.4 PPG) and Rodney Carney (16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Both Washington, who was a Freshman All-American, and Carney considered entering the NBA Draft before return to Memphis. Jeremy Hunt (9.5 PPG) is coming off ACL surgery but Coach John Calipari added four talented freshmen to the mix, not the least of whom is Shawne Williams, who also considered a jump to the NBA before opting to enroll at Memphis.
North Carolina (33-4): It is somewhat surprising that it took this long to get around to the defending champions but when you lose your top seven players and four of them wind up in the NBA, you've got some holes to fill. Coach Roy Williams has just seven percent of last year's scoring back, half of it in the form of David Noel (3.9 PPG). Four freshmen, including three that made the McDonald's All-America list - Tyler Hansbrough, Bobby Frasor and Danny Green - will get a chance to make an impact.
Bets and Pieces: Others who could challenge include
Illinois (37-2), which lost a ton of key personnel but doesn't figure to fade into oblivion so long as Big 10 Player of the Year Dee Brown (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) is running the show.
Indiana (15-14) will build around Big 10 Freshman of the Year D.J. White (13.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) while
Iowa (21-12) returns three players who averaged 14 or more points per game last season. Like Dorothy, Wayne Simien, J.R. Giddens, Keith Langford and Aaron Miles aren't in Kansas (23-7) anymore, Toto. That's 54 points and 22 rebounds for Coach Bill Self to find from holdover Christian Moody (5.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and a bunch of freshmen and sophomores. Arkansas (18-12) will rely on Ronnie Brewer (16.2 PPG) and its defense (62.8 PPG) to climb back to prominence while Iowa State (19-12) will count on the play of its guards, Curtis Stinson (17.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and Will Blalock (12.3 PPG) to make it happen.
