No matter what time of day it is when you're reading this, somewhere in the world, a horse race either is being run or is about to be run. And just as assuredly, people across the globe are reaching into their pockets, accessing their telephone accounts or punching keys on their computers in order to wager dollars, pounds, Euros, yen, francs, marks, rubles, baht, drachmas or whatever on the outcome of those races. Truth be told, unlike every other sport, horse racing would not, indeed
could not, exist without betting.
But while thoroughbred racing lacks an off-season, it does have a peak season, a time of the year when even those individuals not usually interested in the sport often feel the urge to become involved in the action.
That peak season is now. Beginning with the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, moving through the Preakness Stakes two weeks later, and concluding with the Belmont Stakes three weeks after that, the Triple Crown provides the backdrop for the most exciting time in thoroughbred racing.
Each of the three races places different demands on a horse, a reality that has made the Triple Crown the most elusive prize in all of sports. And if capturing all three legs of the series is the ultimate challenge for the horse - it's been accomplished just 11 times in 129 years - then placing a wager on the winner of each of the triad's races has to be the ultimate handicapping challenge for the horse player.
With that in mind, let's look at the key handicapping factors for each of the three races:
Kentucky Derby (May 7, Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky)
For bettors, the idea is not to ascertain which is the best of the 3-year-old crop running in the Kentucky Derby but which colt (or filly) will be the best on the first Saturday in May.
So preparation counts as much as talent.
These days, with most horsemen opting for as few as two preps before the Kentucky Derby, even a minor setback can take a horse off schedule and compromise his chances for success in the Run for the Roses. For the most part, savvy bettors are looking for a contender that hasn't experienced any unexpected layoffs, been forced to miss a workout or, far worse, a race, due to inclement weather or some injury or physical ailment.
There were over 32,000 thoroughbreds foaled in 2002 and no more than 20 of them will race in Kentucky Derby so when it comes to America's premier race for 3-year-olds, getting there may not be half the fun but it is half the battle.
Almost certainly, the winner of the Kentucky Derby will emerge from one of four April prep races, the Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, the Wood Memorial or the Arkansas Derby. Ideally spaced three to four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, each of these premier prep races is run at a mile and an-eighth, or an eighth of a mile less than the classic mile and a quarter distance of the Derby.
The winner of the Kentucky Derby doesn't have to win one of these four preps but he should run well, ideally showing improvement from his previous start while offering some promise that the extra eighth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby will not tax the limits of his stamina. Remember you want your horse to peak at the Kentucky Derby, not three or four weeks before it.
Since the vast majority of horses are bred more for speed than for stamina nowadays, most experienced handicappers believe that breeding can be a determining factor in the Kentucky Derby. Many a horse that's excelled at nine furlongs has tripped over his pedigree when the field stretched out to the 10-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby.
In addition to stamina, the four previously mentioned prep races also afford Kentucky Derby hopefuls experience running a race around two turns, something that doesn't happen at the lesser distances.
Of course, success at nine furlongs is no guarantee that a horse will be a factor at the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby distance. Tactics and running style matter too. In fact, although the 1,234-foot stretch at Churchill Downs is one of the longest in North America, horses rarely come from far behind to win the Kentucky Derby. Nor are they often able to endure the entire distance on the front end. More likely, the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby will be a stalker, a horse that shadows the early leaders, always with a positional advantage to make a move when the front-runners falter.
That stalking running style also has an advantage in what typically is a bulky field, often numbering the maximum number of 20 horses. Being close to the pace (but not engaged in it) relieves a horse of having to circle a large group of tiring runners or, just as damaging, having to contend with an unrealistically fast pace set by overmatched sprinters that have little hope of being around at the finish. So, while there have been 39 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby by leading from gate to wire, just one, War Emblem in 2002, accomplished the feat in the last 15 years.
As in any sporting event, luck also can be a factor in the race's outcome. For example, while not impossible, it's sometimes difficult to overcome the luck of the draw. Horses without tactical speed that draw outside post positions (15-20) often face the distasteful choice either of losing valuable ground on the first turn or dropping back to the rear of the pack.
Horses without reasonable amounts of early speed that draw the deep inside (posts 1-3) are in danger of being boxed in for much of the race. That explains why the majority of recent winners depart from the far more favorable middle posts (4-14).
Luck also can play a significant role beyond the post position draw. Take the cases of Native Dancer and Gallant Man, for instance. Native Dancer lost the 1953 Kentucky Derby at odds of 3/5 after being roughed up by Money Broker on the first turn and shuffled back to eighth. The colt was beaten a head by Dark Star, the only setback in 22 lifetime starts for Native Dancer. Gallant Man lost the 1957 Kentucky Derby by a nose to Iron Liege after jockey Bill Shoemaker famously mistook the sixteenth pole for the finish line and prematurely stood up in the irons.
Bad luck for backers of Native Dancer and Gallant Man. Unbelievably good fortune for enthusiasts of Dark Star and Iron Liege.
Preakness Stakes (May 21, Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland)
The second jewel of the Triple Crown cuts back to a mile and three-sixteenths, or one-sixteenth of a mile (about 110 yards) shorter than the distance of the Kentucky Derby. This, along with several other factors, creates a whole new dynamic for the race handicapper.
For one, if Churchill Downs is accommodating to speed, Pimlico is down right hospitable. That's not to say that horses can't win the Preakness from off the pace but the Pimlico stretch is so short (1,152 feet) that winning moves usually come on or before the final turn, not deep in the lane. That places a premium on nibble, quick horses that seamlessly can alter gears and readily adapt to changing circumstances. On the other hoof, large, powerful horses often are compromised by Pimlico's tight turns.
What's more, the run to the first turn is a short one, again aiding those animals who either are favorably placed or have the requisite early speed to gain a positional advantage. However, the size of the Preakness field typically is in the 10-14-horse range, lessening the traffic problems inherit in the more fully stocked Kentucky Derby.
Most of the time, the winner of the Kentucky Derby also is a solid bet to win the Preakness, something that's happened 20 times, including the last three years with Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem. Unlike the Kentucky Derby however, which endured 21 years without a winning favorite (Spectacular Bid in 1979 to Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000), 67 favorites have won the Preakness in the race's 129-year history.
Bettors who search for a Preakness winner from the list of horses that did not compete in the Kentucky Derby on the theory that the newcomer will be faster and fresher than those that battled at Churchill Downs, do so at their own risk. Since Deputed Testamony turned the trick in 1983, only Red Bullet, in 2000, has claimed the Preakness without first contesting the Kentucky Derby.
Belmont Stakes (June 11, Belmont Park, Elmont, New York)
At the sternly unforgiving distance of a mile and a half, the Belmont Stakes has earned its nickname of "The Test of the Champion."
In the last eight years alone, the marathon 12-furlong race has spoiled the Triple Crown aspirations of Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet and Silver Charm, all of which won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but ran out of gas in the Belmont Stakes.
But distance isn't the only obstacle facing horses and bettors. Both also have to deal with pace, usually a determining factor in the race. Referred to as a "jockeys' race" because the decisions made by riders are so crucial to the outcome, owing to a fear of the distance, the pace of the Belmont often is artificially slow. Soft fractions set the stage for front runners such as Swale (1984) and Bold Forbes (1976), horses that were not supposed to have the stamina to last a mile and a half, going wire to wire in the race.
And while Pimlico and, to a lesser extent, Churchill Downs, can tend to compromise the large, powerful horse, the wide sweeping turns of "Big Sandy" (Belmont) is made to order for long striding behemoths.
Although fields are usually smallest in the final Triple Crown race, luck, in other forms, still can be a fickle factor. With the Triple Crown within their reach, both Tim Tam and Charismatic broke down in the Belmont.
Spectacular Bid injured himself minutes before the Belmont when he stepped on a safety pin. At least that's trainer Bud Delp's story and he's sticking to it.
As always,
The Greek Sportsbook will offer extensive wagering opportunities on the Triple Crown races.
